Private economists, economists, and financial institutions anticipate that Argentina’s monthly inflation rate will decline to below two percent starting in August, marking the first occurrence of this trend in several months. According to the Central Bank’s latest poll of leading firms and experts, Argentina is projected to experience an annual inflation rate of approximately 30 percent in 2026. The Central Bank’s monthly Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado survey, released on Monday, indicated that analysts anticipate consumer prices will increase by two percent in both June and July, followed by a moderation to 1.8 percent in August and September.
Inflation is projected to decelerate to 1.7 percent in October and November, subsequently rising to 1.8 percent in December. The June forecast experienced a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point compared to the prior survey. Among the cohort of forecasters distinguished by their recent accuracy, referred to as the Top 10, the median projection for June inflation has been adjusted downward to 1.9 percent. The Central Bank indicated that there persists minimal variation among analysts’ forecasts, implying a widespread agreement that disinflation is expected to persist throughout the latter half of the year.
On the exchange rate, respondents project that the official peso will conclude the year at approximately 1,673 per US dollar. The REM aggregates projections from private consultancies, financial institutions, and research organisations, serving as a critical indicator for investors and businesses regarding market expectations. It does not reflect the official forecast of the Central Bank.