Argentina’s energy trade balance solidified its role as a primary contributor to the nation’s foreign currency earnings in the first half of 2026.According to a report by economist Nadin Argañaraz, the sector’s surplus improved by US$2.2 billion compared with the same period in 2025, almost entirely due to a sharp increase in energy exports. The study indicates that in June, the energy trade balance recorded a surplus of US$611 million, with exports reaching US$1.4 billion and imports totalling US$794 million. Argañaraz’s analysis indicates that the outcome for the first semester was influenced by a US$2.2 billion increase in exports, which was partially counterbalanced by a US$67 million rise in imports. The report underscores that the enhancement in price and volume effects can be attributed primarily to two factors: the conflict in the Middle East and the increasing production from the Vaca Muerta shale play. Argañaraz analyses the enhancement of the energy trade balance by distinguishing between price and volume effects. He finds that elevated prices contributed US$552 million, whereas the rise in export volumes added another US$1.6 billion.
Together, these inputs resulted in a net improvement of US$2.2 billion compared with the first half of last year. While stronger international prices contributed to the improvement in the balance, the primary factor behind the surplus was the rise in energy production and exports. A chart prepared by Argañaraz using data from Argentina’s national statistics agency INDEC illustrates a significant reversal in the country’s energy trade balance. Following a prolonged period marked by significant deficits, which reached a nadir of approximately US$5.2 billion in 2022 due to escalating imports of natural gas and fuels, the sector commenced a swift rebound in 2023. It subsequently established a surplus in 2024, attained a new peak in 2025, and set yet another record in the first half of 2026. From 2017 to 2022, Argentina’s energy trade balance exhibited fluctuations, oscillating between slight surpluses and increasing deficits. The first half of 2022 marked the most significant downturn, culminating in a deficit approaching US$4.6 billion.
The primary factor contributing to that decline was the increase in energy import expenses subsequent to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A sharp recovery commenced in 2023. The deficit contracted by roughly 76% relative to 2022, and in 2024, Argentina achieved a surplus, reflecting a year-on-year enhancement exceeding 350%. In 2025, the surplus expanded by an additional 35.7%, and in 2026, it achieved a record high, culminating in a cumulative surplus of nearly US$6 billion — 57.9% greater than in the corresponding period of the prior year and marking the most robust first-half performance in the entire series. The trend clearly reflects the impact of expanding production in Vaca Muerta, sustained growth in crude oil and natural gas exports, and the replacement of imported energy with domestic output, cementing the sector’s role as one of Argentina’s leading sources of foreign currency earnings. The study further examines exports and imports in isolation. On the import side, elevated international energy prices resulted in an increase in expenditure on imported energy amounting to US$361 million.
However, reduced import volumes led to savings of US$295 million, resulting in a net increase of only US$67 million in import expenditures. Exports, in contrast, experienced advantages from both elevated prices and increased volumes. Increased prices generated an additional US$913 million in export revenues, while heightened export volumes added another US$1.3 billion. Energy exports increased by US$2.2 billion in comparison to the first half of 2025. Overall, the additional funds from exports more than compensated for the US$67 million rise in imports, leading to a US$2.2 billion enhancement in the energy trade balance and underscoring the sector’s significance as a primary source of foreign currency for Argentina.