Argentina’s economy is beginning to exhibit a more organised macroeconomic framework; however, this enhancement has yet to manifest in a definitive rebound within the labour market. Unemployment levels have remained largely unchanged compared to a year ago; however, concerning indicators are emerging, such as the rise in informal employment, which now impacts 44.4 percent of the workforce, or four out of every nine workers. “Making an analogy with the World Cup, macroeconomics is now tidier but the job market is playing a different match,” analysed Laura Caullo. She further cautioned that there are provinces with a “damaged” job market that remain unrecoverable. Data indicates that Argentina’s unemployment rate stood at 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a level nearly identical to that of the same period in 2025. That percentage translates to approximately 1.8 million individuals actively pursuing employment opportunities in Argentina. Caullo asserts that the fundamental issue extends beyond the sheer number of unemployed individuals to encompass the quality of available employment opportunities. “There are sufficient employment opportunities in Argentina. The assertion made was that the jobs available are of inferior quality,” she suggested. The economist specified that informal work now affected 44.4 percent, or nine million workers, all of whom lack social security and pension contributions, occupational hazards coverage, and other benefits associated with the stability of formal employment. Caullo characterised the present situation as a “two-pronged economy.” On one hand, there is progress in achieving a balanced budget, a reduction in inflation, and a restructured monetary policy. Yet, conversely, employment seems to be the “injured player” of recovery, particularly in sectors that are more labour-intensive. “The injured player today is employment and, in particular, those labour-intensive economic activities,” said Caullo. As she explained, the sectors driving the economy today – fossil fuels, mining, financial services and information technology – might not be the main job creators.
This is crucial for comprehending why the enhancement of certain macroeconomic indicators has yet to be significantly experienced by workers in their financial situations. Caullo indicates that those sectors represent, on average, only three out of every 100 formal jobs; in contrast, trade, industry, and construction comprise approximately 40 percent of total employment in Argentina. The flipside is that those more labour-intensive sectors still do not exhibit a sufficiently robust recovery to drive a widespread enhancement of the job market. Until that recovery arrives, employment will continue to struggle to “return to the pitch,” in the economist’s own words. Another growing phenomenon is the so-called “job pressure” – individuals who are already employed but are actively seeking new employment, additional work hours, or a supplementary job due to insufficient income. According to Caullo, this behaviour indicates a decline in household purchasing power and highlights the necessity to enhance family income. “When a worker’s income is not enough at home, more members of that household start to join the job hunt,” she explained. In that world, jobhunters show up, looking to change jobs, as well as underemployed people, wanting to work more hours. In addition to the unemployed, they form a group of over 5.5 million workers under job pressure. Out of the total, approximately 2.5 million individuals are currently employed yet actively seeking alternative employment opportunities. Caullo posits that this underscores the notion that the challenges within the Argentine job market extend beyond mere unemployment; they encompass inadequate wages, part-time employment, and an escalating demand for improved working conditions. In Córdoba, job pressure impacts more than one-third of the economically active population, contrasting with the national average, which hovers around one-quarter of the workforce. “Wages are not enough, that is why they push to change jobs, increase working hours and somehow to make ends meet,” Caullo summarised. The informal work diagnosis reveals more sensitive information: the impact of wear is disproportionately affecting young women. A report by IDESA warns that the declining birthrate, a phenomenon also occurring in Argentina, is leading to increased female participation in the labour market.
However, that addition is not reflected in formal employment but primarily in precarious or unskilled jobs. According to the survey, between 2015 and 2025, approximately 220,000 women aged 20 to 29 entered the labour force. Yet their insertion was centred on informal jobs: 140,000 became unregistered private wage-earners and a further 130,000 were self-employed, whereas the number of formal female wage-earners dropped by 50,000. According to IDESA, this indicates that the positive development of increased female job participation is tempered by the lack of demand for quality employment opportunities. The report also associates this trend with the concept of the “demographic dividend” – a period during which the ratio of individuals in the workforce rises in relation to children and the elderly. Yet that opportunity may be squandered if the augmented labour supply is not allocated to registered and productive employment. In that case, as cautioned by IDESA, the present enhancement will be constrained, and the nation will accrue obligations for the future, when demographic ageing will become more pronounced. In accordance with Caullo’s suggestion, IDESA’s work emphasises that a more organised approach to macroeconomics is essential, yet it alone does not suffice. To address the issue of informal work, it is proposed to expedite labour reform, decentralise collective bargaining, minimise labour litigation, and implement a tax floor for employer contributions. This approach aims to promote formal employment, particularly within micro-PyMEs, where a significant number of informal jobs are found. Job pressure exhibits significant variations across provinces.
Caullo explained that in certain northern provinces such as Formosa, Santiago del Estero, and Chaco, a reduced workforce can be noted, linked to economies that are more reliant on the public sector and exhibit less vigorous private employment. At the opposite end are the major urban centers such as Greater Buenos Aires and Córdoba, where the labour market exhibits greater dynamism, driven by population density and a robust productive structure. Nevertheless, job pressure is elevated in that context due to heightened competition for the limited available positions, coupled with opportunities that fall short when juxtaposed with the aspirations of the populace. The labour map indicates a low level of participation and a relatively stagnant private sector in certain provinces. In the major urban centres, there is a notable increase in movement; however, this is accompanied by heightened pressure on a market that fails to produce an adequate number of quality jobs. Consulted on the necessary steps for macroeconomic order to translate into more visibly improved jobs, Caullo asserted that the path initiated by the reform is “adequate,” while clarifying that there will not be any magic or immediate results.
She also considered that the labour reform could represent a step in the right direction, although it may be insufficient on its own. “The labour reform, with certain restrictions which I understand to be part of politics, could have been more ambitious but it is a step on the right path. Nevertheless, it is a necessary but not sufficient condition,” she argued. For the economist, Argentina still has structural reforms pending, among them taxation and pensions. Caullo remarked that the country possesses businesspeople, human capital, and conditions conducive to improvement, while cautioning that electoral uncertainty continues to be a factor influencing the trajectory of the economy. “Argentina is electorally conditioned every two years, which is not minor (as a risk)” she pointed out, warning that next year’s presidential elections could again introduce tensions into activity after last year’s midterms. Currently, the data presented are definitive – unemployment has not surged, yet the quality of employment has declined. In an economy striving for signs of stabilisation, the challenge persists in converting macroeconomic enhancements into actual employment, improved wages, and increased social protection.