Following seven months of rising monthly inflation, it appears that prices may have finally paused in April, as reported by private consulting firms. According to their estimates, April’s price increase is projected to be between 2.4% and 2.6% month-on-month — marking the first monthly slowdown in 11 months. Statistics institute INDEC will release official figures on Thursday, May 14. The figure would provide a measure of relief to President Javier Milei’s administration, as the primary political asset and campaign promise — reducing inflation — has faced scrutiny due to the recent resurgence in prices. In May 2025, monthly inflation registered at 1.5%, marking the lowest figure since June 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prices have been rising consistently each month since then. In March 2026, inflation reached 3.4% — the highest level recorded since March 2025. The Fundación Libertad y Progreso, a free-market think tank associated with the government, anticipates that April inflation will remain approximately at 2.4%. “Disinflation is back on track, propped up by the strength of the fiscal surplus, which remains the fundamental anchor of the process, alongside an exchange rate that has held steady since November,” said Tomás Amerio.
The think tank reports that the slowdown was influenced by a decline in food and non-alcoholic beverages, along with clothing. C&T and Equilibra, two other firms that monitor price trends, arrived at the same conclusion, each estimating the price increase at 2.4%. “Beef was decisive, rising only 2% — the slowest pace since September of last year.” Equilibra said “Lower prices for fruits and vegetables added to the trend.” Utilities contributed to tempering the index, as modest rises in gas and electricity restrained the housing category. C&T highlighted the significant influence of education-related prices on the March reading, attributed to the commencement of the school year, an effect that did not recur in April. “For the INDEC, that category was up 12% in March, while for April we estimate a rise closer to 5%,” the consultancy stated. Other firms reported slightly elevated figures. The think tank Orlando Ferreres & Asociados has projected April inflation at 2.6%, a figure that aligns with those of LCG and Econviews. “On one hand, we’re witnessing a notable deceleration in food.” Our price tracking indicates a 1% increase for that category. “That’s a big help,” Alejandro Giacoia told. “On the negative side, regulated prices are still running high.” He added “There’s some carryover from the gasoline hike that’s going to feed into the April data.”
C&T estimated that gasoline rose 4%, “reflecting the rise in international oil prices.” The consultancy acknowledged that “much of the increase came from a carryover effect from March, since prices began to stabilize from the second week of April.” And “Over the coming months, we’ll likely keep seeing monthly inflation closer to 2%, and by the second quarter even below that,” said Iván Cachanosky. “With election noise out of the way, the money supply frozen and demand for pesos normalizing, the fundamentals are there to expect inflation to keep coming down,” he argued. “Of course, we’ll have to keep an eye on the war in the Middle East and whether the conflict spreads.” Giacoia echoed that perspective, stating “the months ahead are likely to be calmer” and that “we can expect inflation lower than in April.” Melisa Sala stated that inflation inertia is the primary factor behind the government’s difficulties in achieving sustainable reductions in inflation. Sala stated that the Argentine economy is currently in a situation “in which the exchange rate anchor is being used again, trade openness is disciplining prices, and sluggish activity is keeping a lid on wage-price pressures.” And “The fact that inflation expectations haven’t been broken is what’s keeping core inflation — the inertia — comfortably above 2% a month,” she explained. “On top of that, some months you get hit by fuel adjustments tied to the war in the Middle East, by beef, or by utility-rate hikes meant to finish phasing out subsidies,” she added.
Martín Rapetti remarked that although the April figure “is a significant drop from March,” it’s crucial “not to confuse a moment with a trend.” And “Underlying inflation — the trend rate — remains stable in the 2.0%-2.5% monthly range.” Achieving international standards will require both time and patience. Accelerating the process may result in diminished activity and an inflated exchange rate. “Obviously, with all the risks that entails,” he stated. The latest Market Expectations Survey conducted by the Central Bank reveals that the leading 10 forecasters anticipate the April CPI to be 2.7%, with a gradual decline to 2% by October 2026. Meanwhile, the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella inflation expectations survey for April revealed that nationwide expected inflation over the next 30 days averaged 3.93%, with a median of 3%.