Following the unprecedented reading in March, private analysts anticipate a contraction this month, driven by declining industrial output, subdued consumption, and a sluggish soybean harvest that is expected to hinder overall activity. Even as Javier Milei’s government emphasised March’s significant increase in economic activity — an all-time high — most private indicators concur that the rebound is unlikely to be replicated in April. “Both official data and the readings from private business chambers suggest the March bounce was just a temporary breather in what is still a fragile dynamic,” stated the consultancy Vectorial. In its report, the think tank noted that preliminary April data “shows deterioration across several sectors and points to another drop in overall activity, barring a last-minute statistical surprise.” The private firm Equilibra is projecting a 1% decline on a year-on-year basis and a 1.5% decrease on a monthly basis. “It’s worth noting that activity has been moving like a sawtooth since February 2025,” the consultancy explained, with monthly contractions in nine of the past 15 months.
One of the primary impediments in April was the postponement of the soybean harvest, attributed to substantial rainfall throughout the month. Nonetheless, that postponement is anticipated to yield a favourable increase for May. Another factor influencing the April figure was that the corn harvest predominantly occurred in March rather than April — in contrast to the previous year — and that beef slaughter decreased by 12% year-on-year. In a comparable context, EcoGo assessed that activity experienced a modest increase of 0.1% year-on-year, yet reflected a decline of 1.3% compared to the preceding month. With that result, the consultancy stated, “the economy is back to the average levels seen since late 2024.” EcoGo also highlighted declines in agriculture and livestock, decreasing by 7% from the prior month, a reduction in industrial output — down 1.5% — and a 2.4% monthly decrease in imported supplies. Investment also declined, experiencing a 2.5% decrease on a monthly basis, while consumption contracted by 1.4% compared to the prior month.
The think tank Orlando Ferreres & Asociados has projected a 0.7% monthly decline. Measured against April 2025, however, the index exhibited no change. “Manufacturing and trade are entrenching themselves as the most lagging sectors, both in April and in the cumulative first four months of the year,” the report stated. Industry continues to be one of the most severely affected sectors, exerting a significant downward pressure on overall economic activity. According to OJF’s estimates, there was a decline of 0.5% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year. According to the Argentine Industrial Union, industrial activity experienced a decline of 0.7% on a year-on-year basis and a decrease of 0.4% compared to the preceding month. Some analysts, however, maintain a positive outlook. The Fundación FIEL think tank reported that industrial activity increased by 0.8% in April, compared to both the previous year and the preceding month.
The Center for Research on the Ecological Cycle reported a 0.2% monthly increase; however, activity remains 0.4% below the level recorded in the same month of the previous year. “There are improvements in construction and in industrial activity — from historically low levels — and solid figures for the wages of registered private-sector workers,” stated CICEC. “While we do not anticipate a change in this two-speed dynamic in the near term, we should observe a gradual improvement in the sectors most adversely affected,” Ferreres stated. The consultancy posited that “macro conditions have improved, and if inflation goes back to easing, we could see a pickup in household incomes and consumer confidence. That, combined with the influence from the more dynamic sectors, should facilitate a turnaround in trade and industry. Claudio Caprarulo informed that the data for April is currently “mixed,” yet he anticipates “stronger growth than in the first” quarter of 2026.