The public discourse surrounding delinquency debt in Argentina intensified on Tuesday, as a post on X outlining the issues garnered two million views. The post was authored by Matías Fernández. He conducted an analysis of loans and debt delinquency by utilising microdata from the Central Bank’s debtors’ registry, which he subsequently cross-referenced with the taxpayer rolls from the tax agency ARCA. In late June, we noted that delinquency had reached unprecedented levels and subsequently, in mid-July, we published another article highlighting the scepticism among banks regarding the government’s initiative to reinitiate lending, primarily due to the significant number of borrowers defaulting. A key point of Fernández’s post was the emphasis that Mercado Pago – the fintech company established by businessman and supporter of President Milei, Marcos Galperín – was “the best student, not the worst.” He noted that the company was undertaking “an ambitious exercise in financial inclusion” with “excessive caution about risk.” Those claims represented his personal opinion, which is entirely valid. The issue lies in the fact that his post framed them as conclusions that logically stemmed from the data.
The discourse in Argentina regarding delinquency and the failure to meet loan obligations encompasses a wide array of lenders. The predominant focus of criticism, however, has been directed at fintechs such as Mercado Pago regarding the interest rates imposed on their customers. Short for financial technology, “fintech” refers to companies that utilise digital software to supplant conventional financial services. The figures are difficult to contest. In February, the most recent month for which data is available, the real rate on personal loans from fintechs stood at 193.5%, exceeding the rate on bank loans, which was 47.3%, by more than a factor of four. Galperín shared Fernández’s work and described it as “a serious, well-executed analysis.” President Javier Milei similarly stated that it revealed the opereta – a colloquial term for a smear job – orchestrated by journalists who had accused the company. Fernández stated that all he had articulated was his personal perspective. Media outlet La Nación has also verified that the firm co-owned by Fernández offers services to Mercado Libre and Mercado Pago, a fact he did not refute. “It’s all pretty clear,” he stated. What transpired subsequently was wholly foreseeable.
The discussion shifted focus from delinquency to the identities of the speakers, their affiliations, and the allegiances they represent. The president made derogatory remarks toward journalists. Journalists responded. And the individual who accesses an application and discovers they are three installments overdue on a loan finds themselves precisely in the same position as before: lacking any understanding of how to resolve their issue. It is important to note that the mere act of an individual providing an analysis concerning a client does not inherently render the information inaccurate. Fernández utilised publicly available data, and a significant portion of his findings can be corroborated. Nonetheless, the client holds significance as well. When an individual disseminates research that supports the interests of their employer, it is imperative that readers are made aware of this potential bias. Both statements hold validity simultaneously, and neither is resolved through the exchange of derogatory remarks. The fundamental issue is distinct and predates this specific occurrence. Data delinquency in Argentina is documented in the Central Bank’s debtors’ registry, its banking reports, and its semiannual report on non-financial credit providers. This information is publicly accessible and available for download by anyone.
The fundamental issue lies in the fact that a vast majority are unable to utilise it, and only a select few can comprehend its intricacies. These spreadsheets contain hundreds of thousands of rows, articulated in the specialised terminology of the Central Bank’s reporting framework. Categories undergo renaming from one edition to the next, accompanied by footnotes indicating that comparisons between different series are not feasible. Engaging with them requires a considerable investment of time, various software applications, and a well-defined objective regarding your search parameters. The disparity between public data and usable data is precisely where the spin manifests itself. No matter the source, it’s all the same. In a world without oversight, the loudest voice or longest arm claims victory. Introducing “Deudores,” a chatbot designed to tackle questions about delinquency, credit, borrowers, and interest rates in Argentina’s financial landscape.
Adrián Fernández (no relation to the analyst quoted above) is the technical mastermind behind it.
- You can ask it anything you want regarding those topics.
- How many people are behind on payments in a given province?
- How much does the average borrower of a given age owe?
- How much do loans at a fintech cost compared to a bank?
- How much has credit grown over the past year?
- What percentage of delinquent borrowers owe less than a minimum wage?
It does not provide responses regarding regulation, as that information was not incorporated into its dataset. The underlying database closely resembles the one Fernández utilised for his post on X, with the addition of official interest rate data and several other figures of our own. Our data is sourced from the Central Bank’s Financial System Debtors’ Registry up to June 2026, the Central Bank’s interest rate series, and its semiannual report on non-financial credit providers. Additionally, we utilise the ARCA’s taxpayer rolls through July 2026, along with data from the statistics bureau INDEC, which includes the consumer price index, the permanent household survey, and the 2022 census. Three disclaimers before you proceed. Initially, all the data is compiled. This indicates that there is no data pertaining to identifiable individuals, and there will never be. Second, the chatbox will not achieve perfect accuracy, similar to any instrument developed from a large language model. This is the rationale behind our publication of a methodology note that outlines each source and every limitation in detail. Third, this tool does not supplant journalism. It serves as an entry point to the data, enabling subsequent discourse with us, the government, or any other party of your choosing.
In February, 27% of all loans issued by non-bank institutions were delinquent for more than three months. Just a year earlier, the figure was 9.5%, indicating it nearly tripled in twelve months. What is particularly notable in that comparison is the rapidity of its deterioration. There was a parallel occurrence in the banking sector, with household delinquency increasing from 6.6% to 11.2% in the past year. Increases of such magnitude across all categories of lenders indicate underlying systemic factors. It’s the economy, stupid, as the adage suggests. Begin with the examination of prices. Non-bank lenders extended credit at an average annual rate of 288.2%. The same loan at a bank incurred a cost of 96%. With annualised inflation at 35% for that month, real rates were significantly positive in both instances: 193.5% and 47.3%, respectively. Then there is income. The purchasing power of registered wages declined by 3.5% from June 2025 to February of this year. That indicates a pay cheque has diminished in purchasing power since the time the debt was incurred. The calculations are not in your favour. The squeeze is also evident in activity levels. In February, the economy experienced a contraction of 2.6% relative to January. That picture, however, fails to capture the two distinct economic realities currently being experienced in the country.
Mining experienced a year-on-year growth of nearly 10%, while agriculture surpassed 8%. In contrast, the industrial sector declined by 8.7%, and retail faced a decrease of 7%. The expanding sectors engage a limited workforce. The entities that experienced collapse not only employ a significantly larger workforce but also rely on the actual purchase of goods or services by consumers. One figure indicates that the issue at hand is financial resources, rather than a lack of willingness. Nearly sixty percent of individuals with debts outside the banking system also have obligations to a bank. That indicates that individuals borrowing from fintechs or for appliance purchases do not constitute a distinct category of high-risk debtors; rather, they are indebted to multiple lenders simultaneously. The same demographic – individuals who engage in borrowing beyond the conventional banking framework – is concurrently the one experiencing the most significant lag in relation to the banks.
When an individual ceases payments on the costly loan – characterised by a higher interest rate – as well as the more affordable one, it is not a matter of selecting which obligation to fulfil. They have exhausted their capacity. “Nobody held a gun to their head,” President Javier Milei responded in early August when questioned about his views on delinquency as an issue. The remark served as his argument for a hands-off approach by the government, asserting that the issue at hand is “a problem between private parties.” Economy Minister Luis Caputo expressed his support. “Empathy should not be confused with public policy,” he stated, noting that banks are already in the process of refinancing the debts. This week, Caputo announced that the government will promote mortgage lending by directing a portion of the pension funds held in ANSES’s Sustainability Guarantee Fund toward financing those loans.
