Hydrocarbon production in Argentina commenced in 1922 with the establishment of Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales, recognised as the world’s inaugural state-owned oil enterprise. More than a century later, the nation’s energy sector is poised to embark on its most prosperous era to date. “Fifteen years ago, Argentina was a country with oil, and there was not even a possibility that Argentina would be an oil-producing country,” Daniel Dreizzen told. Vaca Muerta, he added, open up that possibility. “Argentina is on its way to becoming an oil-producing country because it is going to export more oil and gas than it consumes itself.” While consultants anticipate positive developments in the years ahead, they also highlight a significant limitation: the Nequén oil field has the potential to position Argentina as a key player in the regional energy landscape, but it falls short of elevating the country to a global powerhouse status. Argentina’s energy trade balance transitioned from a US$4.3 billion deficit in 2022 to a US$5.6 billion surplus in 2024, marking the first energy surplus since 2011. The nation is experiencing unprecedented levels of energy exports. Between January and August 2026, the sector amassed a surplus of US$7.8 billion, surpassing the total recorded for the entirety of 2025, as reported by the statistics bureau INDEC. “This is the best moment in Argentina’s oil and gas 100-plus-year history,” said energy consultant Daniel Gerold.
Economía & Energía consulting firm head Nicolás Arceo highlighted that Argentina currently has the “highest production level in its history.” And “It broke the production records of the late 90s and early 2000s in oil and natural gas. And it has a resource development outlook that it has practically never had in Argentine history,” he added. The outlook for the coming years appears increasingly favourable. If one adds the oil and gas projects already approved under the Large Investment Incentive Regime, the works already underway, and the announced projects, the total investment universe approaches US$90 billion. The central focus of the initiatives lies within the Vaca Muerta oil field located in Neuquén province, alongside endeavours aimed at exporting liquefied natural gas. Dreizzen explained that Argentina currently produces approximately 900,000 barrels of oil per day, with 700,000 of that total coming from Vaca Muerta. “If everything goes well, within 5 years it will reach 2 million barrels per day; that is more than doubling current production,” he estimated. The director of the energy consultancy Paspartú, Juan José Carbajales, indicated that by 2032 Argentina has the potential to export 1,000,000 barrels of oil per day. “It is not insignificant because it is the same amount that Venezuela has today,” he noted, adding that not many countries can increase exportable production to that level.
In the case of LNG, the dynamics are somewhat distinct. Arceo estimated that if all projects linked to this sector come to fruition, Argentina would have a liquefaction capacity of approximately 18 MTPA (million tonnes per annum). Carbajales increased the figure to 24 MTPA by 2032. Argentina currently lacks large-scale gas liquefaction capacity; however, two projects are underway to change this situation. The first is Argentina LNG, with an estimated total investment of US$51 billion, aimed at installing floating liquefied natural gas units off the coast of Río Negro. YPF CEO Horacio Marín announced at Argentina Week Paris that the final investment decision will be signed on November 26 in collaboration with Italy’s Eni and the Emirati firm XRG. The second project is spearheaded by Southern Energy in collaboration with the SASE consortium, which includes PAE, YPF, Pampa Energía, Harbour Energy, and Golar LNG. Construction has commenced on the San Matías Pipeline, a 500 km conduit designated solely for exports, aiming to welcome the inaugural liquefaction vessel in the latter half of 2027.
Such a development would enable local LNG production to tap into European and Asian markets. “All international analysts see Southeast Asia as the growth sector for hydrocarbon demand over the next two or three decades,” Arceo highlighted. Can Argentina emerge as a significant player on the global stage? While the future of energy production appears promising, the four specialists concurred that anticipated hydrocarbon production would fall short of elevating Argentina to a dominant position in the sector, akin to that of the United States, Russia, or Arab nations. “Global oil prices are not going to collapse because Argentina increases its exports like to would if Saudi Arabia were to do so,” Gerold said. Carbajales said that, while Argentina could become a “respectable player” within the international oil sector, it would “not move the needle.” Arceo elucidated that the nation has the potential to solidify its standing among the top 15 producers worldwide, accounting for 1.5% to 2% of global supply, yet remains significantly distant from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC nations. Those production levels are insufficient to establish dominance as the largest producer in South America. Brazil produces around 4 million barrels, whereas Guyana – currently possessing a capacity akin to that of Argentina – targets an oil production of 1.7 million barrels per day by the year 2030.
In the realm of LNG, the circumstances appear to be somewhat more advantageous. Gerold estimated that Argentina could account for slightly more than 2% of global production. “By 2032, Argentina will export 18 MTPA of LNG in a market that might be 700 MTPA by then.” Carbajales expresses a cautiously optimistic view, suggesting that Argentina has the potential to emerge as a significant player in the global market, particularly due to the limited number of exporters worldwide. The country’s relevance, he added, is related not to volume but to the fact it would imply a “new window” for demand from Europe and Asia, allowing them to diversify geopolitical risks. “That grants Argentina a prominent place at negotiating tables, with a relevant asset that it is already using for its sovereignty claim [over the Malvinas Islands],” he said. Dreizzen did not dismiss the possibility of an even greater increase in hydrocarbon production in the coming decades if new deposits are confirmed in the country. Among potential developments, Dreizzen highlighted Palermo Aike – situated south of Santa Cruz province and part of Tierra del Fuego – the D-129 Formation – found between Chubut and Santa Cruz – or prospective offshore deposits in the Argentine Sea.
