Argentina’s statistics institute INDEC reports that the economy faced its most substantial monthly contraction in February since December 2023. On Wednesday, the government’s statistics agency reported a 2.6% decrease in the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator compared to January. It has reached its lowest point since July 2025. The downturn can be linked to disappointing outcomes in key sectors, especially manufacturing, in conjunction with the completion of the wheat harvest. Year-on-year, economic activity contracted by 2.1%, representing the most pronounced decline since September 2024. The predominant factor behind the decline can be attributed to reductions of 8.7% in the manufacturing sector and 7% in commerce. “Aggregate output remained 3.4% above the 2012–2015 average, but with a population that is 11% larger,” stated a report.
“As a result, per capita GDP has declined by nearly 6% over the past ten years.” The main positive contributions came from the energy and mining sector, which saw a 9.9% increase, followed by agriculture at 8.4%, and financial intermediation at 6%. Nonetheless, the agricultural sector demonstrated a growth rate that fell short of the double-digit increases recorded in December and January. The latest survey published on Tuesday, reveals that industrial business leaders possess pessimistic outlooks regarding production, employment, domestic demand, and exports in the forthcoming months.
Insufficient domestic demand and competition from imported products have emerged as the two main constraints on production. The government sought to alleviate the adverse effects of the unfavorable INDEC data for February. The underlying trend, as indicated by the trend-cycle measure, maintained its positive momentum with a monthly rise of 0.1%. “This indicator has now recorded nearly two years of uninterrupted expansion,” stated Economy Minister Luis Caputo.