According to estimates, a journey to watch Argentina’s football national team play its first three games in the 2026 World Cup group stage will cost US$7,850 per person, including average expenses. It represents a significant financial commitment for what is regarded as the most costly World Cup ever, coinciding with a period when Argentina’s currency is relatively robust and wages are elevated in US dollar terms. However, many Argentines find themselves with diminished real purchasing power compared to prior tournaments, and there is a noticeable deceleration in outbound tourism. Every four years, football’s biggest event exerts pressure on Argentina’s Central Bank reserves. However, this time it does not seem to be a concern for President Jaiver Milei’s administration, even though the “Messi effect” might still yield unexpected outcomes. Government officials anticipate that approximately 30,000 Argentines will journey to the United States, Mexico, and Canada to back the national team during the upcoming tournament. That figure is marginally lower than the projected 35,000 attendees for Qatar 2022. However, by December 18, the date on which Argentina secured the championship, there was a significant influx of fans eager to witness the final live and in-person, regardless of the expense. In January 2026, the number of outbound tourists reached approximately 590,000. “It’s more anecdotal than statistically significant,” one official told Perfil, comparing it with one of the peak months of the summer holiday season.
During the 2022 World Cup, expenditures on international travel and foreign card transactions increased by 40 percent relative to the same timeframe in 2021 and 2023, as reported. Anastasia Daicich indicated that in a scenario where up to 30 percent more Argentines travel than usual, with average spending per passenger around US$10,000, total foreign currency outflows associated with the World Cup would amount to approximately US$455 million – a figure that “does not move the needle” for the Central Bank. A basic package excluding flights to attend a single match – including three nights of accommodation, transfers, and taxes – currently starts at approximately US$3,200. In contrast, the option to attend two matches, with seven nights in hotels, rises to US$6,500. Argentina’s economic team rejects the notion that an influx of tourists will lead to spending that might impact Central Bank reserves during the June to July period, providing multiple justifications for their stance. Initially, officials contend that flight and hotel reservations were secured in prior months, thus having already exerted their influence. Second, dollar reserves at the Central Bank have strengthened since December 2022 – US$44 billion at that time compared to US$47 billion currently, with net reserves also showing improvement at approximately US$2.4 billion versus about US$3.6 billion. Third, ticket prices are deemed “ridiculous” and the United States is perceived as “expensive,” which dampens enthusiasm.
The dollar exchange rate situation presents a stark contrast to that encountered by Argentines travelling to Doha. The average exchange rate, at today’s prices, is approximately 50% of what it was during the previous World Cup: 1,458 pesos compared to 2,838 pesos at the contado con liquidación (CCL) exchange rate, as calculated by source. The issue at hand is that wages, while appearing substantial in dollar terms as indicated salary data at US$1,190 compared to US$644, have diminished in purchasing power when measured in pesos. This decline is occurring against a backdrop of inflation that has reached an accumulated rate of 952.28 percent by April of this year. The deterioration has been especially marked in the first months of 2026 for formal sector workers, whose pay rises have consistently lagged behind inflation. If US inflation is considered, fans would have faced prices 11.4 percent lower in dollar terms had the tournament occurred at the same location four years prior. The paradoxical combination of a historically cheap exchange rate and weakening purchasing power is evident in tourism figures. In 2025, there was a notable surge in Argentines travelling abroad, marked by a 43.1 percent increase. However, the initial four months of this year recorded only 5.2 million outbound tourists, a significant decline compared to the 11 million observed during the same timeframe the previous year. Tourism expert Laura Vernelli emphasises a specific element that is directly influencing the foreign currency outflows of the Central Bank. “There has been a significant decline in outbound overland tourism from individuals travelling by car to Brazil or Chile, which adversely affects the overall figures.” She explained that there has also been a sharp decline in day-trippers crossing into neighbouring countries for shopping. “However, air travel is expanding, and that is effectively the segment that syphons the most funds through tourism. In some respects, the situation is still better than 2025, but worse than previous years,” she concluded.
Since President Javier Milei took office, the framework governing overseas card spending has experienced multiple deregulations. At the conclusion of 2023, surcharges were reduced from 155 percent to 60 percent to counterbalance the devaluation of the official exchange rate, and in December 2024, they were further diminished with the complete removal of the PAIS solidarity tax. This flexibilisation persisted with the elimination of the longstanding limit on cash withdrawals from international ATMs and increased support for the bi-monetary system. Consequently, the prevailing “card dollar” exchange rate is now exclusively influenced by a 30 percent advance payment on income tax. Users can completely circumvent this expense by settling their card bills directly using their own dollar holdings via the “stop debit” mechanism. Up to March, the Central Bank, under the leadership of Governor Santiago Bausili, estimated net outflows of US$393 million in the travel and tickets category. It was further elucidated that “70 percent of all outflows linked to spending on travel goods and services, other card payments and passenger transport services are settled directly by clients using foreign currency funds, mostly purchased through the foreign exchange market.” Another US$800 million was allocated to cover tourism-related and other card expenses. However, according to figures managed within government offices, approximately 400 million pesos per month continues to be remitted through taxes. “And most of those taxes are never reclaimed. The self-employed monotributista. Due to the minimal sum involved, they refrain from implementing stop debit measures, resulting in no income tax liability to counterbalance it,” officials conveyed to the outlet.
Despite the meticulous calculations conducted within government offices, certain analysts are incorporating an emotional dimension into their assessments. A report think tank cautioned that the decrease in outbound tourism during the initial two months of the year might not be indicative of a structural issue, but instead a tactical delay – numerous families may have opted against summer vacations to conserve dollars in anticipation of the World Cup. This impending migration is influenced by five primary factors, such as a more advantageous exchange rate compared to Qatar, reduced geographical distance, and the significant “Messi effect” – associated with what may be the last World Cup appearance of Argentina’s captain, Lionel Messi. The study projected that this additional demand will partially reverse the moderation observed at the beginning of the year, maintaining foreign currency outflows above US$4 billion in the first quarter, compared to inflows of US$1.5 billion. Despite the improvement in the ratio, with 2.8 Argentines travelling abroad for every foreign tourist arriving in the country, down from the record 3.2 in 2025, the structural imbalance persists.