Since the onset of the commodities boom in the early 2000s, Argentina has become increasingly dependent on soybean exports as a vital source of U.S. dollars — a currency that has experienced exceptionally high demand within the country’s economy for several decades. Consequently, successive administrations have implemented a diverse array of strategies aimed at incentivising farmers to sell — and export — soybeans, while simultaneously pursuing supplementary revenue from what is frequently referred to as the nation’s golden goose, primarily via export taxes. The latest examples encompass the export incentive programs initiated during the administration of former President Alberto Fernández — commonly referred to as the soy dollar exchange-rate scheme — alongside the temporary export tax reductions enacted by President Javier Milei’s government in the previous year. However, during the first half of 2026 — the period when most of the harvest is typically marketed — soybean sales were below historical levels. As of July 15, only 14.6 million metric tonnes had been sold at a fixed price, which represents a 27% decline from the median recorded between 2010 and 2025, according to estimates.
Only 29% of the estimated 49.5 million-ton soybean harvest has been marketed, in contrast to a historical average of 41%. “The slowdown in soybean marketing became more pronounced as the year progressed,” analysts wrote in their report. At the outset of 2026, cumulative sales significantly exceeded historical trends, with January figures recorded at 81% above the historical median. By July, however, the volume sold had decreased to 27% below the long-term average. “I don’t think comparing this year with previous ones is valid anymore,” analyst Javier Preciado told, arguing that current sales volumes are “completely normal.” And “There’s no longer any pressure for the agricultural sector to liquidate exports because dollars are now coming in from energy and mining,” he said, referring to the strong export growth in both sectors this year. “Without the soy dollar program and without the broader economic pressure for agriculture to be the country’s sole source of foreign currency, what we’re going to see is a market driven by producers’ own need to sell and by buyers’ purchasing demand,” he added.
In a similar vein, Dante Romano, who leads research at Max Capital and serves as a professor at Austral University, remarked to the Herald that the motivations prompting farmers to sell this year “are the same as always.” And “For that reason, producers had no additional incentive to sell more,” unlike last year, when temporary export tax cuts during the first half of 2025 encouraged sales. “This year, none of those incentives exist. On top of that, there’s already a schedule in place for further export tax reductions in 2027,” Romano said. He also noted that mixed crop and livestock producers have experienced enhanced profitability in sunflower, corn, wheat, and livestock. “That improved their cash flow and allowed them to avoid selling as much soybean production,” he explained. The Argentine Oil Industry Chamber expressed a similar perspective. The industry group emphasised that the temporary export tax cuts in the first half of 2025 “accelerated producers’ sales.”
It also highlighted weather-related factors that postponed this year’s harvest, indicating that soybean marketing “started later than usual.” Potential export revenues are anticipated to fall within the range of US$14.25 billion to US$18.38 billion for the latter half of the year, as reported. “An acceleration in sales could increase agriculture’s contribution to the broader economy,” the report said. It noted that the stronger flow of export revenues “could boost transportation, grain storage, industry and services,” while also increasing liquidity across agricultural regions and improving overall economic performance compared with the second half of 2025.