President Javier Milei anticipates that substantial investments in energy and mining will not only redefine the nation’s productive and export landscape but also alter the living conditions of millions of Argentines. Deregulation and State Transformation Minister Federico Sturzenegger, a cabinet member closely aligned with the president’s economic ideas, has articulated this ambition most clearly. Sturzenegger recently stated that 1.5 million people could migrate to Neuquén over the next thirty years. The province serves as the epicentre of oil and shale gas development, Vaca Muerta, and is characterised by the highest economic growth rate in the country. If this estimate proves accurate, it would imply a population increase of 111%, an unprecedented development considering that there are currently 710,000 individuals residing in the Patagonian province. Sturzenegger also projected that mining investments over the same period would attract one million new residents to Catamarca. Considering the province’s current population of 367,000, the projected growth would represent a substantial increase of 172%. The minister projected that San Juan would experience an increase of approximately 800,000 residents, effectively nearly doubling its existing population. These projections, however, are at odds with expert estimates.
While specialists anticipate population growth in these provinces, they contend that it will be considerably constrained, akin to the experiences observed in countries such as Chile and Australia. Mining, oil, gas, and energy are highly capital-intensive sectors: they require enormous investments, but they do not generate direct employment in the same proportion’, warned a recent report. The organization estimated that the projects announced in these sectors — several of which were approved under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (in Spanish, RIGI) — could lead to the creation of nearly 50,000 direct jobs. If indirect jobs are included, the figure could reach between 200,000 and 300,000 positions. For comparison, nearly 340,000 registered salaried jobs have been lost since Milei took office, according to data from the Superintendence of Occupational Risks. “For the receiving provinces, this could represent a significant change; for the national labour market, however, it remains a relevant but limited phenomenon [equivalent to almost 5% of registered formal employment or 1.4% of total employment],” the Fundación Mediterránea brief explained. The report highlighted the situation in Neuquén, which experienced a 40% rise in registered private-sector employment over the past decade.
This figure, however, only represents 40,000 jobs, a number that is noteworthy. Another example is Chile, recognised for its copper mining industry, the country’s leading export sector. “Even when indirect employment is included, the sector’s share of employment remains low relative to total employment,” explained the report authored by economist Jorge Day. Another factor that may undermine the Milei administration’s expectations is the potential reluctance of workers and their families to relocate, given the economic, familial, and social costs associated with such a move. With nearly 11 million inhabitants, according to the latest official census, the Greater Buenos Aires area stands as Argentina’s most populous region and has served as the country’s industrial heartland for almost a century. It currently constitutes 49% of Argentina’s manufacturing output, as reported by the Industrial Union of the Province of Buenos Aires (in Spanish, UIPBA). Global trends indicate a divergence from significant migration towards peripheral regions. “Population and economic activity tend to concentrate in large cities, where there are larger markets, specialised services, and professional networks,” Day argued. For this reason, he asserted that migration to Argentina’s provinces will “likely be selective.” He added that the phenomenon will occur more readily among young workers, as well as technicians and professionals with experience in activities linked to these projects.
A significant movement of lower-skilled workers, families with deep ties to Buenos Aires province, or workers whose qualifications are not well-suited to the new initiatives seems improbable. Day noted that the experiences of Chile and Australia illustrate that a considerable portion of labour demand in these areas was fulfilled by workers who journeyed to mining or energy locations for several days or weeks before returning to their homes. Therefore, in Argentina, “part of this demand could be met through temporary migration or labour rotation, without necessarily increasing the resident population in the same proportion.” He concluded, “The idea of greater labour migration toward the rest of the country is reasonable but limited.” There will be provinces and cities that emerge as winners, an increased demand for labour, and a more discerning approach to migration. However, the transition will not be automatic nor inherently substantial.