A leading consultancy firm in Buenos Aires is projecting a historic year for Argentina’s exports, indicating that they may surpass the US$100-billion threshold by 2026. LCG, established by economist and politician Martín Lousteau alongside lawyer Esteban Javier Conte Grand, forecasts that exports will reach US$103.74 billion in 2026 – an increase of US$16.6 billion from the previous year and exceeding the prior record of US$88.85 billion, achieved in 2022. Argentina’s trade surplus, according to LCG, is projected to exceed US$20 billion – nearly double the previous year’s US$11.32 billion. The growth is distributed among Argentina’s four primary export categories, with agriculture, energy, and mining serving as the key drivers, according to the firm’s report.
The primary sector is expected to account for approximately one-third of the overall increase, driven by maize, which is anticipated to see export growth exceeding 50 percent due to a record projected harvest of 44 million tonnes, contributing an additional US$3 billion. Wheat exports are projected to increase by nearly 40 percent, driven by higher volumes and stronger international prices, according to LCG’s forecast. Agriculture and livestock manufactured products are projected to contribute 25 percent to the growth, propelled by soybean oil, which is expected to rise by 34 percent to US$8.5 billion, primarily due to elevated global prices. The energy sector is poised to account for an additional quarter of the increase, as crude oil exports – supported by tensions in the Middle East-are projected to rise from US$6.7 billion to over US$9 billion.
This growth reflects a six-percent increase in volume alongside a nearly 30 percent rise in prices. Lithium exports are projected to surge by 154 percent, increasing from US$842 million to approximately US$2.1 billion, driven by the realisation of mining projects. Gold exports are expected to increase, driven solely by elevated international prices. LCG projects indicate that imports will decline by approximately three percent, hindered by subdued domestic consumption, industrial activity, and investment. The consultancy’s analysts identified the translation of the export boom into local employment as the medium-term challenge that lies ahead.
