Argentina’s June inflation fell to 1.9%, according to a study released on Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. This figure represents the third consecutive decline, following April’s 2.6% and May’s 2.1%. Furthermore, this marks the first occasion in ten months that the inflation rate has dipped below the 2% threshold. It represents the lowest figure since the 1.6% noted in June 2025. Core inflation, meanwhile, registered at 1.6%, indicating a notable deceleration from the prior month’s 1.9%. It represents the lowest figure recorded since July of the previous year. Prices increased by 33.5% compared to the previous year, whereas the total inflation rate for 2026 to date is recorded at 16.8%. According to brokerage firm Balanz, goods prices rose 1.4% month over month, while services prices increased 2.9%, reflecting that the disinflation process remains “slower in this latter segment.” By category, seasonal prices recorded the most significant monthly rise —3.4%— propelled by increased costs for vegetables and services associated with tourism.
In the latter case, the increase was attributed to a particular factor: the World Cup. The categories that experienced the most significant increases were airline tickets, hotel accommodations, and travel packages. This was also reflected in the breakdown by division, as Recreation and Culture rose 4.2% —the largest increase among all CPI components— primarily due to higher prices for package holidays. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Clothing and Footwear experienced the least significant monthly increase, rising merely 0.4%. Multiple elements account for this result. On the supply side, Argentina’s textile and footwear industries are enduring a significant recession, grappling with increasing competition from imported products. According to official data from Argentina’s statistics agency, INDEC, capacity utilisation in the sector is currently at a mere 42.4%.
This is exacerbated by household purchasing power, which has not yet sufficiently recovered to facilitate a significant resurgence in consumer spending. Julián Neufeld, stated that the institution anticipates inflation will hit 1.8% in July. He also highlighted an external factor that could benefit Argentina: disinflation in the United States. The June reading of -0.4% will weaken the U.S. dollar globally, helping stabilise the exchange rate domestically. “If restrictive monetary policy and fiscal discipline are accompanied by exchange-rate stability, there would be no reason for this disinflationary trend not to continue to strengthen,” he added. Eric Ritondale, projected that the disinflation trend will continue gradually over the coming months. He added that the sustained decline in core inflation “confirms the ongoing disinflation process.” However, he cautioned that inflation “will not follow a linear path.”
This is attributable to modifications in relative prices and the seasonal patterns exhibited by specific elements of the consumer price index. Santiago Casas, stated that the outlook “remains favorable” for inflation to continue declining in the coming months. “Fiscal balance and a contractionary policy stance continue to reinforce the disinflation process, making it reasonable to expect inflation to converge toward progressively lower levels during the second half of the year,” Casas said, adding that lower inflation would help improve real wages.