Since the onset of the commodities boom in the early 2000s, Argentina has become increasingly dependent on soybean exports as a vital source of U.S. dollars — a currency that has experienced exceptionally high demand within the country’s economy for several decades. Consequently, successive administrations have implemented a variety of strategies aimed at incentivising farmers to sell — and export — soybeans, while simultaneously pursuing additional revenue from what is frequently referred to as the nation’s golden goose, predominantly through export taxes. The most recent instances encompass the export incentive programs initiated during the tenure of former President Alberto Fernández, commonly referred to as the soy dollar exchange-rate scheme, alongside the temporary export tax reductions enacted by President Javier Milei’s administration in the previous year.
However, during the first half of 2026 — the period when most of the harvest is typically marketed — soybean sales were below historical levels. As of July 15, only 14.6 million metric tonnes had been sold at a fixed price, which represents a 27% decline from the median recorded between 2010 and 2025, based on estimates from the Fundación Mediterránea think tank. Only 29% of the estimated 49.5 million-ton soybean harvest has been marketed, in contrast to a historical average of 41%. “The slowdown in soybean marketing became more pronounced as the year progressed,” analysts wrote in their report. At the outset of 2026, cumulative sales significantly exceeded historical trends, with January figures reflecting an 81% increase over the historical median. By July, however, the volume sold had decreased to 27% below the long-term average. I don’t think comparing this year with previous ones is valid anymore,” agricultural analyst Javier Preciado told, arguing that current sales volumes are “completely normal.”And “There’s no longer any pressure for the agricultural sector to liquidate exports because dollars are now coming in from energy and mining,” he said, referring to the strong export growth in both sectors this year.
“Without the soy dollar program and without the broader economic pressure for agriculture to be the country’s sole source of foreign currency, what we’re going to see is a market driven by producers’ own need to sell and by buyers’ purchasing demand,” he added. Similarly, Dante Romano told that the factors driving farmers to sell this year “are the same as always.” And “For that reason, producers had no additional incentive to sell more,” unlike last year, when temporary export tax cuts during the first half of 2025 encouraged sales. “This year, none of those incentives exist. On top of that, there’s already a schedule in place for further export tax reductions in 2027,” Romano said. This year, none of those incentives are present. “On top of that, there’s already a schedule in place for further export tax reductions in 2027,” Romano said. He also noted that mixed crop and livestock producers have experienced enhanced profitability in sunflower, corn, wheat, and livestock. “That improved their cash flow and allowed them to avoid selling as much soybean production,” he explained.
The Argentine Oil Industry Chamber reiterated that perspective when approached by the Herald. The industry group emphasised that the temporary export tax cuts in the first half of 2025 “accelerated producers’ sales.” It also indicated that weather-related factors contributed to delays in this year’s harvest, resulting in soybean marketing “starting later than usual.” Potential export revenues are anticipated to range from US$14.25 billion to US$18.38 billion in the latter half of the year, as reported. “An acceleration in sales could increase agriculture’s contribution to the broader economy,” the report said. It added that the stronger flow of export revenues “could boost transportation, grain storage, industry and services,” while also increasing liquidity across agricultural regions and improving overall economic performance compared with the second half of 2025