On Monday, September 21, a technical team from the International Monetary Fund will arrive in Buenos Aires to formally begin the third evaluation of Javier Milei’s economic program. During their stay, the technical staff of the IMF will engage in discussions with officials from the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank. The emphasis will be on evaluating adherence to the objectives for the previous quarter, with a specific focus on fiscal matters and reserve levels. In its presentation of the 2027 budget, the Economy Ministry indicated that the primary fiscal surplus anticipated for 2026 is set at 1.3% of Gross Domestic Product, amounting to AR$15.5 trillion, or US$9.7 billion at the official exchange rate.
This indicates that the government will slightly fall short of the fiscal target established with the financial organization, which is set at 1.4% of GDP (AR$16 trillion, US$10.4 billion). The difference is approximately AR$700 billion (US$456 million). Looking ahead to 2027, the budget indicated that the projected fiscal surplus will amount to AR$18.4 trillion, while interest payments will total AR$3.3 trillion. This third IMF review will offer a distinct perspective for the government in contrast to the earlier two assessments. In the months of February and April 2026, the Milei administration successfully met its fiscal targets; however, it fell short of achieving the Central Bank’s reserve accumulation target.
This time, the situation is reversed, as the country’s main monetary authority has purchased the committed US$10 billion in reserves. It is worth noting that, although the primary surplus target set by the IMF in its reviews has not been met, 2027 will mark the fourth consecutive year the government has achieved a fiscal surplus, a goal President Milei regards as a fundamental component of his economic program. According to Economy Minister Luis Caputo, who spoke during the Export Day ceremony at the Palacio Libertad, this is the “first time in history that this has happened under a government that has not defaulted on its debt.”
