Survey finds that Argentines anticipate a slowdown in inflation over the next 12 months

The University of Torcuato Di Tella has released a study on inflation expectations, and it predicts a rate of 170% in the coming year.

A new survey found that Argentines predict inflation to be 170.8% next year, which is down over 60 percentage points from the previous forecast made a month ago.

The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella study found that whereas the average population inflation expectation for the next 12 months was 230,000 in January, it dropped to 170.8 percent in February. It dropped from fifteen hundred to one hundred percent, as seen by the median.

In February, the average percentage of price hikes predicted for the next 30 days was 19.08 percent, down 6.95 percentage points from January’s record of 26.03 percent.

The experts from the university came to the conclusion that this figure “has a greater response rate than the annual inflation, which suggests that in a context of high uncertainty it is probably easier for people to answer what they believe will happen in a month” because of the overwhelming response.

Inflation expectations are lower across the board, according to the survey. In Greater Buenos Aires, they stand at 201.8%, down from 214.2% in January; in Buenos Aires City, they stand at 214.5%, down from 246.7% in January; and outside of Buenos Aires, they stand at 147.1%, down from 236.1% in January.

At the same time, households’ average anticipated inflation declined across all income brackets.

It was also noticed in February that there was a decline in the disparities in inflation perception across households with varying levels of education, which is closely related to income levels. For this reason, the perception of those with less education plummeted from 210.8 percent in January to 151.9 percent in February, which is even lower than the published figure for December (188.2 percent).

According to the study, the percentage of people with a higher education level who thought it was lower went down from 240.5 percent in January to 180.5 percent this month.

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