Argentina recorded a historic trade surplus of nearly US$14 billion in the first half of the year, propelled by increased exports and reduced imports compared to the same timeframe last year, notwithstanding a decline in the trade balance for June. On Monday, the statistics institute INDEC announced a trade surplus for June exceeding US$2 billion, marking the smallest surplus observed in the past four months. Seasonally adjusted data indicates that exports experienced a decline of 0.9% compared to the previous month, whereas imports saw an increase of 3.4%. “After several months in which domestic demand struggled to gain momentum, the improvement seen in seasonally adjusted import series is an encouraging sign for sectors tied to the domestic market, although it should still be interpreted with caution,” said Santiago Casas.
Year over year, both exports and imports experienced an uptick, with exports advancing at a notably swifter rate (24.5% compared to 7.3%). “Total exports were slightly above US$9 billion, in line with market expectations reflected in the REM survey, while imports surprised on the upside at US$6.861 billion, accounting for most of the downside surprise in the trade balance,” analysts noted. The annual increase in imports was primarily influenced by elevated prices, while import volumes experienced a general decline. Imports of capital goods experienced a decline of 12.1%, in contrast to a 4.4% rise in intermediate goods. As a result, Casas emphasized that it is “still too early to conclude that domestic demand has entered a recovery phase, although some encouraging signs are beginning to emerge and deserve close monitoring.” The primary factors driving the increase in imports were energy-related acquisitions, notably liquefied natural gas and diesel fuel. This reflects the delayed effects of elevated global energy prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.
Export growth, meanwhile, was propelled by rises in both prices and volumes. “More than half of the year-over-year increase compared with 2025 came from manufactured agricultural products, led mainly by fats and oils, whose prices surged due to U.S. demand for biofuels. Manufactured industrial products, with gold and lithium among the standout exports, as well as fuels (+US$333 million), also made significant contributions,” consulting firm LCG explained. Casas stated that the export outlook remained “very solid.” And “Not only have exports remained at high levels, but growth has spread across virtually all major categories. This confirms that the export sector continues to be the main engine of the Argentine economy and, for now, its primary source of growth,” he added. The cumulative trade surplus for the first half reached almost US$14 billion, marking the highest on record for a first half (or the highest in inflation-adjusted terms since 2009), and is five times larger than in the first half of 2025. In comparison to the prior year, exports experienced a notable increase of 24.4%, whereas imports saw a decrease of 3.9%.
LCG consulting firm indicated that almost 50% of the year-over-year enhancement in the trade balance was attributed to a reduced deficit in sectors that contribute less significantly to Argentina’s foreign trade (US$17 billion in 2026 compared to US$22 billion in 2025), while 20% was derived from an increased surplus in fuels and energy. Looking ahead, LCG anticipates a slight contraction in the trade surplus as the pace of export growth begins to decelerate. Even so, it projects total exports of approximately US$100 billion for 2026 and a trade surplus nearing US$20 billion. Similarly, Abeceb projects a trade surplus of approximately US$21 billion this year, with exports reaching around US$100 billion, supported by agriculture, energy, and mining, “although weaker oil and mineral prices have moderated their contribution.” Abeceb anticipates a rebound in industrial activity and consumer spending in the latter half of the year, which is expected to bolster import growth significantly.