Economic activity surged in March, reaching a new all-time high with a remarkable growth of 3.5% compared to the previous month and an impressive 5.5% year-on-year. This growth was primarily driven by robust performances in agriculture, industry, and mining. According to the statistics institute INDEC’s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator, it was the largest monthly increase since Javier Milei assumed office. Following the surge, March activity recorded a 6.6% increase compared to the level in November 2023 — right before Milei’s election win — marking its highest level since at least 2004. Iván Cachanosky stated, “the March EMAE confirmed what was expected, and the economy bounced back strongly.” He explained that February “was the bottom of the cycle,” due to the structural challenges presented in the first two months of the year — “summer holidays, lower industrial output, and in this case a general strike and two fewer business days.”
In March, manufacturing experienced a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, while commerce saw an increase of 2.2%. This growth adds to the existing momentum from energy, which rose by 5.7%, mining, which surged by 16.3%, and construction, which rebounded with a notable 7.6% increase. “What stands out about the data isn’t just the headline number but the composition,” Cachanosky said, noting that 14 of the 15 sectors grew year-on-year. Public administration and defence experienced a contraction, decreasing by 1.2%. “That’s a sharp departure from the pattern of previous months, when the economy was showing a marked split — mining and agriculture surging while industry and commerce slumped,” he stated. Not everyone is on board with the optimism. Hernán Herrera informed that the robust March 2026 figure in comparison to March 2025 is primarily attributed to a weak base of comparison.
“For both activity and industry, March 2025 was a very challenging month. Almost every sector was stalled, because they were waiting to see what would happen with the exchange-rate regime, which was overhauled in April,” he said. He also emphasised the ongoing impact on the industry, highlighting that in the first quarter of 2026, the sector was 10.5% lower than in the first quarter of 2023 — prior to Milei’s adjustments. Herrera stated that certain categories within the EMAE “are working against the economy as a whole.” For instance, he stated, “when subsidies are cut or real interest rates rise, that isn’t helping aggregate demand or output.” Cachanosky stated that “the unevenness we’ve been seeing shouldn’t be read as an anomaly, but as the expected outcome of an economy that is reshaping its production base after 60 years of protectionism.”
There is currently no agreement on what the future holds. The Fundación Libertad y Progreso economist anticipates that “with inflation easing and no election noise this year, demand for pesos will normalise and consumption — which had gone quiet because of the electoral uncertainty in September and October last year — will start to pick up.” Herrera, however, did not dismiss the possibility of a slowdown. He dismissed any possibility of a short-term recovery, with the exception of mining and oil. “In fact, we may well see more trouble,” he stated. “That’s where there’s something genuine happening,” he added, referring to those sectors.