Will Paraguay’s banking crisis affect Argentina?

Upon waking in Buenos Aires on Tuesday, November 3, Pablo Casas quickly learned of his month-long suspension from work. For a period exceeding two years, he was employed in the Observability department at IT systems firm ITTI, which rendered support to the Grupo Vázquez holding company, with a primary focus on Ueno Bank. In recent days, the bank of Paraguayan origin has emerged as a pivotal entity in the financial crisis affecting Argentina’s neighbouring country. The crisis resulted in a suspension of customer savings and initiated impeachment proceedings against President Santiago Peña. Casas is among roughly 1,000 employees situated in Argentina tasked with delivering IT services to the conglomerate. They constituted the largest division of ITTI. The company also has employees in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Paraguay, who are currently encountering a comparable situation. “Early in the morning [on Tuesday], they shut down all of the bank’s operations without saying anything, without any communication from management, and without explaining why,” Casas told. The only explanation came in an email from Human Resources stating that “all communication channels were available” for employees to contact them. However, that did little to reassure them. “We don’t really know much either,” was the response Casas received from HR. Leandro Vildoza, a Buenos Aires-based employee who was suspended, informed that he initially became aware of the issues confronting the holding company the prior Monday via news reports from Paraguay.

On that day, all scheduled meetings were cancelled, and all communication channels utilised by employees, including Slack and Gmail, were rendered inactive. Access to the offices was also prohibited. “It was like a day when they declare a mandatory public holiday,” he said. It was not until Thursday morning that formal notification of their suspension was received from Kaitel SRL, a company subcontracted by ITTI to manage its operations in Argentina. “As a consequence of the resolution and intervention proceedings involving Ueno Bank, ordered by the Central Bank of Paraguay and publicly announced on November 3, 2026, an extraordinary situation has arisen that severely affects the availability of the financial resources necessary for the Company’s normal operations,” the email stated. “In particular, the operational and financial restrictions resulting from this measure have affected the Company’s usual financing mechanisms, leading to the temporary suspension of its activities,” the message added. Casas noted that the decision additionally impacted employees who were on vacation, as well as those on medical leave, whose leave was similarly suspended. Vildoza, however, pointed out that the notice “has no legal backing,” arguing that the company cannot suspend employees without justification and without formally notifying them through a certified legal letter. There is another issue: the company has not yet disbursed the salaries for October, which are typically paid in a combination of Argentine pesos and U.S. dollars. Both employees informed of their contemplation regarding collective legal action concerning the unpaid wages-an initiative they aspire to synchronise with workers in other nations-as well as the management of their suspensions. “The idea is precisely to begin that process next week,” Vildoza said. He added that one of their main concerns is whether their health insurance coverage will remain in place. “The email says they are supposedly going to maintain health coverage, but we have no idea whether that’s actually true,” he added. Casas noted that tensions started to escalate in July of this year, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup, when employees were instructed to reduce expenses. Subsequently, layoffs impacted around 200 employees in Argentina, alongside an unspecified number in Paraguay.

Reports have emerged in the Paraguayan media raising concerns about the company’s solvency and criticising the Central Bank of Paraguay for its lack of action regarding the issue. “That prompted Miguel Vázquez – the founder of Ueno Bank – to speak out several times, saying that all of it was just rumors, that the company was completely solvent and that everything was running quite smoothly,” Casas said. He added that the holding company’s executives communicated with employees through video calls during which “we obviously had no say, except for perhaps asking a question through Google, which they might answer.” Vildoza stated that the suspended employees had made unsuccessful attempts to reach out to ITTI’s Head of People in Argentina, Pilar Camacho, as well as the country’s Senior Manager of Payroll, Roxana Corrales. “They resigned, and they were two of the people who knew about this situation and who, at least, managed to negotiate their departure from the company,” he said. He stressed that employees had no knowledge of “everything that was being planned behind the scenes.” He recalled: “Everyone on the team that had been built over the past two years believed in the ambitious project that was underway.” According to him, Ueno Bank had promised to “bring technology to Paraguay.” In other words, “to develop in Paraguay what we have here in Argentina: a PedidosYa, a Rappi or an Uber, but under different names.” And “Everyone who worked at ITTI came from major companies, and we thought the project was spectacular. We never imagined this would happen,” he said regretfully.

The situation has significantly impacted Paraguay in recent days. The country’s sovereign risk index increased by 25 basis points, moving from 119 to 144 points, reflecting a 21% rise. The financial impact was also reflected in a depreciation of the national currency, the guaraní. Since October 28, the U.S. dollar has appreciated by 12%. On Thursday alone, the dollar appreciated by 5.4%. Despite this, experts are not concerned that the volatility could spill over into Argentina, as occurred, for instance, following the unexpected victory of Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential runoff election in late October. Pablo Repetto told that “what happened in Paraguay has a very specific, country-specific component” that is not present in Argentina. “There is no such pronounced concentration of deposits in a handful of activities within a single institution,” he explained. He added that Argentina has a more decentralized banking system: “It seems to me that it is a much less concentrated system.” Economist Gustavo Ber reached a similar conclusion: “I don’t think it will spill over into Argentina, since local banks have solid financial indicators,” he told.

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