The International Monetary Fund announced Tuesday a significant reduction to its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina, adjusting it from the 3.5% projected in its April report to 2.1%. The new projection places Argentina beneath the regional average of 2.3% and the global average of 3.1%. Additionally, the institution has adjusted the country’s unemployment forecast upward from 7.2% to 7.6%. The new figures were published in the World Economic Outlook report presented during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand, which commenced on Monday. Argentina’s economy Minister Luis Caputo is set to attend the event on Tuesday, accompanied by Vise Minister José Luis Daza and Argentine Central Bank President Santiago Bausili. The report has revised Argentina’s growth forecast for 2027 downward, adjusting it from 4% to 3.5%.
Nevertheless, this figure remains significantly higher than the projections from the BCRA’s Market Expectations Survey, which anticipates growth rates of 1.5% for 2026 and 3% for 2027. The IMF anticipates that the recovery will persist, albeit at a markedly slower rate than in 2025, accompanied by gradual enhancements in essential macroeconomic imbalances. It forecasts diminished inflation, an enhancement in the external sector – with the current account transitioning into surplus – and a relatively stable unemployment rate. The findings resonate with the World Bank’s announcement last week in its biannual Regional Economic Update. The institution has revised its growth projections for Argentina, lowering the estimates from 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027 to 2.1% and 3%, respectively. According to the report, the energy sector will serve as a pivotal engine for Argentina’s economy.
The IMF estimates that oil prices will average US$96 per barrel this year, reflecting a 40% increase compared to 2025. Despite a projected decline to US$87 next year, prices continue to be elevated relative to historical norms. With natural gas prices elevated beyond pre-Iran crisis levels, the hydrocarbon sector is positioned to gain from the evolving international landscape. This could further enhance the attractiveness of energy initiatives like the Vaca Muerta shale formation, Argentina’s largest oil and gas field. However, elevated fertiliser and energy costs will also escalate expenses for productive sectors, exerting further pressure on specific industrial and agricultural supply chains, the report indicated. The IMF cautions that prevailing international financial conditions represent a significant challenge, with global public debt on the rise and sovereign bond yields reaching multi-decade highs.
For Argentina, this indicates that access to financing will continue to rely on a less advantageous international environment compared to the conditions that dominated much of the previous decade. The region’s comparatively subdued growth prospects present an additional challenge. The IMF forecasts that Latin America will experience growth rates of merely 2.3% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, significantly trailing behind Asia. Brazil, Argentina’s primary trading partner, is projected to experience a deceleration in growth from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027. The slowdown reflects monetary conditions that remain restrictive as policymakers seek to bring inflation back to target, the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and global uncertainty.
