In September, inflation in Argentina was recorded at 1.9%, as detailed in a report released on Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. This figure marked an increase following August’s 1.7%. However, inflation has persisted below 2% for two consecutive months, marking the first occurrence since July and August 2025. Meanwhile, core inflation registered at 1.7%, a decrease from the 1.8% observed in the preceding month. This represented the lowest figure recorded since July 2025. Prices increased by 33.4% compared to the previous year, whereas inflation reached 23.6% during the first three quarters of 2026. The Consumer Price Index exhibited regional variability. Greater Buenos Aires and the Pampas region experienced monthly increases of 2%, surpassing the national average.
In contrast, the Northwest and Cuyo regions experienced growth of 1.9%, the Northeast noted an increase of 1.7%, while Patagonia registered the lowest rate at 1.4%. By category, seasonal prices increased by 2.9%, largely influenced by the rise in prices of vegetables, tubers, and legumes. Regulated prices experienced a 2.3% increase, primarily driven by rising costs in gas, electricity, and prepaid healthcare. Among the various categories of expenditure, the most significant monthly rise was observed in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, which experienced an increase of 3.1%. This was closely followed by education, which saw a 3% uptick. In contrast, the most modest increases were observed in the sectors of restaurants and hotels, which saw a rise of 1.1%, and clothing and footwear, which experienced a 1.4% increase.
Sergio González noted that the “positive data point” was the monthly decline in core inflation. “The acceleration came from volatile components and utility tariffs, not from the underlying price trend,” he explained. He noted that the figure was in line with market participants’ expectations, “so it should not come as a surprise to investors.” Federico Filippini articulated a comparable perspective. Despite the acceleration in monthly inflation, “September’s figure offers a fairly positive reading.” He noted, first, that the figure was lower than the levels reported by several private consulting firms. Meanwhile, core inflation stood at 1.7%, “reinforcing the signal of an underlying slowdown.” He noted that the overall outcome was favourable, especially considering that merely weeks prior, certain market participants had anticipated “significantly worse results.”
Looking ahead, González explained that the market anticipates monthly inflation to remain around 1.8%, “which implies a slight slowdown from September’s reading.” The latest Market Expectations Survey, compiled by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic, indicated that the median private-sector forecast for September stands at 1.9%. For October, the average forecast stands at 1.7%, subsequently decreasing to 1.6% in November, before experiencing a recovery to 1.8% in December. According to these projections, annual inflation is anticipated to hit 30% by 2026. Meanwhile, in its latest update on the Argentine economy, the International Monetary Fund projected that inflation would conclude the year at 32.5%, an increase from its April estimate of 30.4%.
