Economic activity declined by 2.9 percent in July, adjusted for seasonal variations, compared to the previous month – marking the most significant monthly decrease since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Data released by the INDEC national statistics bureau on Thursday indicated that Argentina’s monthly economic activity estimator, or EMAE, experienced a decline of 1.4 percent year-on-year in comparison to July 2025. The EMAE measurement has exhibited fluctuations, alternating between increases and decreases in recent months. Activity experienced an uptick in four of the seven months documented thus far this year, while it saw a decrease in three months.
In comparison to July 2025, seven out of the 15 sectors comprising the EMAE experienced growth during the month of July. Fisheries exhibited remarkable growth, surging an astonishing 424.5 percent year-on-year, while mining and quarrying experienced a more modest increase of 8.4 percent. Agriculture, livestock, hunting, and forestry experienced an increase of 0.7 percent. Together, the three sectors accounted for a complete percentage point in the year-on-year variation of the EMAE. Meanwhile, eight sectors experienced contractions relative to the previous year, with wholesale and retail trade and repairs leading the decline at 5.1 percent.
The sector, along with manufacturing, which declined by 4.6 percent, contributed to a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the EMAE year-on-year. Facundo Beltramone, an economist at the Fundación Libertad think tank, remarked that the official data “shows a sign of weakness at the margin.” And “On a seasonally adjusted basis and compared with June, manufacturing output fell five percent, construction declined 4.6 percent and mining output fell 0.9 percent,” he noted. “Foreign trade showed the same signs: exports fell 4.9 percent and imports 4.5 percent from the previous month. Taken together, the indicators available point to a weak July for economic activity,” he said. However, he stated that the figures “must be viewed within a trajectory that has shown considerable volatility.”
“Seasonally adjusted EMAE rose 0.4 percent in January, fell 2.6 percent in February, rebounded 3.5 percent in March, then fell again by 1.5 percent in April and 0.5 percent in May, before rising 0.8 percent in June. Rather than following a linear trajectory, the economy in 2026 appears to be moving in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between monthly corrections and recoveries,” said the expert. Argentina’s government projected in its recent Budget bill that gross domestic product would grow by 4.5 percent this month. Experts consulted in the Central Bank’s most recent REM market expectations survey project a growth rate of 2.1 percent for this year, with an anticipated increase to 2.9 percent next year and a further rise to three percent by 2028.
