Risks don’t disappear just because you ignore them. They only become more dangerous. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb At its core, economic policy represents the strategic management of risk. Every programme faces inherent tensions, and each stabilisation plan necessitates a set of decisions that favor specific objectives while sacrificing others. Every government determines the risks it … Read more
President Javier Milei is intensifying his defense of Argentina’s currency in anticipation of another substantial local debt auction, exacerbating the strain on the banking system and the wider economy as he combats inflation. The government is conducting an auction on Wednesday for peso notes and dollar-linked securities, marking the second such event in a fortnight. … Read more
Argentine markets exhibited volatility this week, influenced by a significant bribery scandal impacting the Milei administration and a newly introduced monetary policy that has been characterized by many as precarious. The EMBI, a gauge of country risk that assesses the probability of debt default, rose to 829 basis points on Tuesday — marking its peak … Read more
Argentine authorities audit investor behavior in repo loans, short-term financial securities with record-high interest rates due to bank liquidity shortages. The Central Bank and local regulator CNV have sought assistance in analyzing the real-time data they receive daily from the country’s two primary exchanges, BYMA and A3, regarding the short-term instruments referred to locally as … Read more
In June, Argentina’s economy experienced a contraction for the fourth consecutive month this year, occurring just prior to a significant increase in interest rates in July. This development represents a minor setback for President Javier Milei as the nation approaches midterm elections in October. Economic activity declined by 0.7 percent from May, falling short of … Read more
Investors are increasingly allocating capital to Argentina’s local markets, capitalizing on the significant depreciation of the peso and the decline in domestic bonds to enhance their exposure to the nation’s assets. Vontobel Asset Management has engaged in the acquisition of Boncer bonds, which are inflation-linked notes issued by the government. Meanwhile, Neuberger Berman has taken … Read more
Argentina’s peso exhibited a notable appreciation on Thursday following the announcement by authorities regarding an increase in reserve requirements for banks. This move is aimed at bolstering the currency in the wake of a significant local debt auction that did not meet market expectations. The central bank has raised reserve requirements by five percentage points … Read more
A sharp rise in borrowing costs comes as the government prepares for a peso debt auction Wednesday to roll over US$17.4 billion in maturities, or a third of the economy’s money. On Monday, yields on the Argentine government’s short-term notes reached unprecedented levels, occurring merely two days prior to an auction by the Treasury that … Read more
Following Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s call for Argentines to withdraw their dollars and “remonetise” the economy without answering questions, experts worry about legal and tax consequences. Argentina’s government is implementing new deregulatory measures that will enable individuals to utilize US dollars held outside the banking system without the need to disclose the source of these … Read more
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced that it has reached a staff-level agreement with the Argentine government regarding the first review of the program established in April. The lender’s board is scheduled to convene in late July to provide final approval for the review, a decision that would facilitate a US$2 billion disbursement. Just … Read more