In March, inflation in Argentina is once again nearing the three-percent threshold, as reported by prominent consultancy firms, indicating a lack of the desired deceleration sought by President Javier Milei’s administration. Private consultancy firms agree that the monthly rate is expected to stabilize around three percent, driven by rising costs in food, fuel, and utility rates. This suggests an initial price increase of approximately 12.
Most analysts expect that the inflation data for the upcoming month, set to be released by the INDEC national statistics bureau on April 14, will persist in surpassing the target established by the Milei administration. Inflation for March was reported at approximately 2.9 percent, leading to a quarterly increase of 8.9 percent, while year-on-year inflation stood at 31.9%. “Looking ahead to April, the main risk lies in how quickly the pass-through from fuel prices will spread to the general basket via transportation costs,” cautioned Julián Neufeld.
The Analytica consultancy firm reported that the previous month ended with an inflation rate of three percent, as food prices saw a 0.3 percent increase in the last week, consistent with the forecasts provided by another firm, Eco Go. Economy Minister Luis Caputo recognized apprehensions about the speed of economic recovery and conceded that inflation in March may hinder the ongoing decline. “It is possible that February’s EMAE will reflect a downturn, or that the inflation figures from the previous month may indicate an uptick – ultimately, it holds minimal significance.” It will not lead us astray from our planned trajectory. The official asserted, “We will reach our goal.”
Caputo conveyed dissatisfaction regarding the pace of economic recovery, highlighting that consumption has yet to exhibit signs of revival and that indicators of economic growth appear to be decelerating. “I harbor concerns about the speed of the recovery.” He stated “We have the potential to be growing at nine or ten percent.” The economy minister highlighted the extraordinary levels of GDP, exports, private consumption, and agricultural output.