Latin America prepared for a significant impact as President Donald Trump’s tariffs disrupted global trade last year. However, the current period presents an unprecedented opportunity for the region’s exports. On Tuesday, Argentina reported that its exports in the previous year ranked as the second-highest in the nation’s history. The release came on the heels of data from Brazil and Chile, both of which indicated that their exports reached record levels in 2025. In the upcoming days, data from Mexico and Peru are expected to disclose significant milestones. As Europe contends with the resurgence of tariff threats from Trump, Latin America approaches 2026 with a stronger capacity to absorb potential trade disruptions emanating from Washington. Exporters are experiencing advantages due to enhanced logistics, the capacity to reroute shipments to emerging markets, and, most importantly, strengthened connections with China. The world’s second-largest economy is actively acquiring the region’s commodity exports, including soybeans, copper, and iron ore. “Strong export performance last year looks counter-intuitive given the tariff noise, but it was driven by a combination of increasing prices, volumes and geopolitics,” stated Andres Abadia. Key exports in the region are expected to maintain a degree of resilience.
Latin America has ascended to a prominent position in global geopolitics as the Trump administration actively endeavors to extend its influence throughout the Western Hemisphere. In the context of trade, the prevailing situation in numerous countries across the region indicates that China’s presence is more deeply established than at any previous time. The regional trade shift observed in 2025 was particularly pronounced in the sectors of food and agricultural goods. China’s initiatives to diversify its sourcing have led to a significant increase in shipments of frozen Brazilian beef, which surged by nearly 50 percent compared to the previous year. Increased soybean imports from Argentina, driven by a short-term halt in export duties, have mitigated the impact of diminished US supply in the context of persistent trade tensions. In Peru, the demand from China for gold and copper has significantly influenced exports to Beijing, highlighting the impact of the Asian nation’s industrial and energy transition on the trade dynamics of Latin America. “There is a global friction between US and China, both of them are fighting for markets,” stated Alberto Ramos. “China is already a significant trading partner for most Latin American economies.” Mexico stands out, as approximately 80 percent of its exports are directed towards the United States, with total shipments to its northern neighbor increasing by seven percent year-to-date through November 2025. In late November, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration sanctioned tariffs on 1,463 products, predominantly sourced from China, indicating a further alignment with Washington.
Chile achieved unprecedented levels of copper exports, a crucial component for clean energy technologies, to both China and the United States, driven by rising prices and consumption. In the future, exports from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru are expected to gain from the demand for raw materials and agroindustrial products, as noted by Abadia of Pantheon Macroeconomics. The Brazilian government anticipates that exports for the current year will reach between US$340 billion and US$380 billion, building on shipments of US$348.7 billion recorded in 2025. Chile’s Central Bank anticipates a 1.8 percent increase in exports of goods and services following the 2025 benchmark of US$107 billion. Argentina’s exports are projected to reach US$91.4 billion this year, as indicated by a survey. That figure stands in contrast to $87.1 billion in 2025. In this context, regional leaders are refraining from explicitly aligning themselves with either side. Argentina, led by President Javier Milei, who is notably aligned with Trump, maintains its position with China as the primary market for its exports, refraining from a complete severance of ties with Xi Jinping.
Brazil’s leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is exercising caution to steer clear of conflicts. Relations with the US have seen an enhancement following his success in reducing a significant portion of the extensive tariffs that were enacted by Trump in 2025. “Trump’s recent actions have shown US willingness to support politically aligned governments in the region,” stated Dan Pan, an economist at Standard Chartered. “However, even the most far-right leaders in the region will need to adopt a pragmatic approach when it comes to engaging with the largest purchasers of the region’s commodity exports.”