President Javier Milei has seen a complete erosion of the gains he achieved in opinion polls following his victory in the October midterm elections last year. His approval ratings have reached their nadir since he assumed leadership of Argentina in December 2023. However, this is not inherently a cause for significant concern while in office. Milei and his team maintain a strategic advantage as they approach the 2027 presidential race – the critical inquiry is their intended course of action with this leverage. Over a month following his state-of-the-nation address in Congress in early March, Milei has yet to delineate a coherent agenda for his forthcoming two years in office. In just over a year, the nation will transition into an intensified electoral phase, set to commence in mid-2027. The President maintains his conviction that his narrative against establishment and government intervention will suffice to reshape the nation into a more favorable environment for Argentines.
The initial pair of bills he is presenting to Congress this year align with that trajectory. The revisions to Argentina’s Glacier Law eliminate the federal government’s role in overseeing environmental aspects of mining development. The “Ley Hojarasca” aims to eliminate unnecessary or outdated government interventions in everyday life. This initiative, conceived by Deregulation & State Transformation Minister Federico Sturzenegger, encompasses a range of regulations, including the requirement for backpackers to obtain a credential for hitchhiking in Argentina and the presidential pledge to serve as the godfather to every seventh child born to an Argentine family. However, Argentines may not experience the advantages of mining investment in the near term, nor show concern for backpackers’ identification protocols if inflation in March reaches, as anticipated, its highest monthly level in a year, or if unemployment trends toward double digits. Nor if a reduction in subsidies for public transport companies leads to commuting chaos, as observed this week, when numerous bus lines in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area significantly curtailed their services.
Milei’s administration is currently characterized by a significant dearth of positive developments, and the limited favorable news it does receive fails to endure sufficiently to influence public sentiment directly. The New York court ruling in late March, which upheld the country’s position that YPF was partially nationalised in a legally sound manner in 2012, represents a significant victory for the administration, the broader political establishment, and the nation’s financial health. However, this development remains as abstract for the general public as the condition of ice formations in the Andes; it is challenging to comprehend for individuals facing daily struggles, such as delayed buses, while trying to make ends meet on salaries that fail to cover all expenses. The divergence in perception between the broader global context and the local public’s view of Milei poses significant challenges for the administration. This week, the World Bank released its periodic projections of economic performance, indicating that the country will be “the main upward exception” in the region. It forecasted economic growth of 3.6 percent for this year and 3.7 percent in 2027, attributing this positive outlook to President Milei’s “pro-growth agenda that includes tax reform.” The administration has committed to tax reform, yet it has not yet submitted the corresponding bill to Congress.
If those projections hold true, by the time Argentines cast their votes for the next president in October 2027, the nation will have experienced three consecutive years of growth for the first time in twenty years. Such an event would certainly be significant; however, it is crucial for the government to recognize that macroeconomic indicators do not always align with the individual experiences of voters. A potentially perilous divide appears to confront the government: one that distinguishes the discourse of the ruling party from the concerns of the populace. Milei’s primary accomplishment as an outsider was establishing a connection with the public’s apprehensions, particularly regarding inflation and corruption. As inflation continues to pose challenges, Milei appears to be safeguarding his Cabinet chief, former spokesperson Manuel Adorni, who is under suspicion of embezzlement. Reports indicate that Adorni has utilized private jets for summer vacations and acquired high-value properties over the past two years—transactions that necessitate cash amounts inconsistent with his declared assets, wealth, and monthly income.