The INDEC, provided an explanation of its methodology for calculating economic activity figures for September, revealing growth despite widespread expectations among economists of an impending recession. Source indicated that the rise was primarily attributable to a statistical correction stemming from its seasonal adjustment methodologies and the robust performance of the financing sector. The incorporation of the most recent data necessitated an estimation of the figure subsequent to seasonal adjustment. According to a statement, this entails “recalibrating previous months and the way in which the series is distributed.” Consequently, although the trend had been previously characterized as “irregular”, the inclusion of September’s data reveals a positive trajectory. The performance observed in September can be attributed primarily to the expansion within the finance sector, as per notes. The rising volumes of bank loans and deposits are driving heightened demand for financial services, consequently leading to an increase in banking commissions. Furthermore, stockbrokers and brokerages engaged in increased trading of government securities.
Since 2019, the INDEC has been under the leadership of Marco Lavagna, coinciding with the tenure of Peronist President Alberto Fernández. On Tuesday, the INDEC reported that the country’s economic activity increased by 0.5% in September compared to August and by 5% relative to the same month of the previous year, surprising analysts who had anticipated a recession. INDEC assesses economic activity through the monthly economic activity indicator. This serves as a preliminary gauge of the nation’s GDP, determined on an annual basis. The reliability of Argentina’s official statistics presents a nuanced political challenge. Throughout the presidency of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, from 2007 to 2015, the INDEC came under the control of then-commerce secretary Guillermo Moreno, resulting in the dissemination of unreliable data. Analysts noted that the data released on Tuesday encompassed revisions to seven of the prior eight months, in comparison to the figures from August. According to the report from August, the economy contracted by 0.1% in both January and July, whereas the document released in September indicated that activity had expanded by the same margin during those months.
“Through sleight of hand, INDEC avoided recession,” stated economist Alfredo Zaiat during an interview. “A consensus among market consultants indicates that the economy was not experiencing growth.” Analysts and industry associations have noted that, as per INDEC, the manufacturing sector is experiencing a downturn. Raúl Llaneza, deputy secretary-general of the State Workers’ Association union and a representative for INDEC, conveyed to the Herald his skepticism regarding the existence of “any kind of manipulation.” Nonetheless, he acknowledges that the number may provoke skepticism, as “there was no expectation of a shift from negative to positive trends during a crisis in [Argentina’s] industry, with formal jobs declining and informal work on the rise.” Carlos Rodríguez, a former member of President Javier Milei’s economic advisory team, expressed on X that “productive Argentina lags far behind financial Argentina,” further stating: “That’s no way to build a country.”
Economist Diego Giacomini tweeted that 64% of the year-on-year growth was attributed to the government’s increase in taxes on private entities while simultaneously cutting subsidies, along with banks raising interest rates on goods and services companies. Llaneza stated that the INDEC ought to be capable of forecasting shifts in trends. “If we do not, we fall into arrogance, into the cynicism of saying ‘the numbers speak for themselves,’” he stated. “The reality is that they do not — INDEC regrettably stems from a calamitous experience during the 2007-2015 period.”