IMF Praises Argentina’s Stabilization, Cautions on Transition Costs

International Monetary Fund spokesperson Julie Kozak commended the reform agenda being implemented by the Argentine government, describing the economic stabilization plan as ‘impressive.’ During her regular Thursday press conference, Kozak cautioned that effectively addressing the transition costs linked to these reforms ‘are also going to be important.’ In the early hours of Friday, the Argentine Congress enacted a pivotal labor reform bill, integral to President Milei’s broader reform agenda. The spokesperson’s remarks follow a recent one-week visit by the Fund’s technical staff to Buenos Aires. The mission constituted an evaluation of the nation’s economic framework preceding a subsequent assessment necessary for a new allocation of funds. Kozak also commended the US$2 billion in reserves that Argentina’s Central Bank has acquired since January.

The issue at hand has become a point of disagreement between the Milei administration and the Fund, as the former refrained from addressing it for several months, citing concerns that it would exacerbate inflation. “Sustained reserve accumulation, supported by continued implementation of the zero balance fiscal anchor, will be essential to secure durable market access and allow Argentina to better address shocks,” she explained. The IMF spokesperson emphasized that Argentina had undertaken ‘very important steps’ to bolster confidence and external stability, which included recent adjustments to the monetary and foreign exchange regime. Kozak concluded by stating that the Fund was dedicated to “safeguard the quality, accuracy, and transparency of Argentina’s statistical systems.”

“In our discussions with the Argentine authorities, we’ve reached a consensus that the availability of timely, credible, high-quality, and impartial data is crucial for effective policymaking and fostering public trust.” The national statistics agency, INDEC, has found itself embroiled in controversy. In 2025, the administration indicated that, prior to the year’s conclusion, it would adjust the calculation of inflation to rely on the 2017-18 household expenditure survey, moving away from the 2004 survey currently in use. The articulated objective was “to better reflect structural changes in cost patterns” and to “improve data quality.” In early February, Economy Minister Luis Caputo indicated that the government would delay the introduction of a new method for measuring inflation until the disinflation process was “fully consolidated.” The resignation of INDEC head Marcos Lavagan was prompted by the decision. The recent “technical mission” dispatched to Buenos Aires to assess the nation’s economic situation was led by the IMF’s mission chiefs for Argentina, Luis Cubeddu and Bikas Joshi.

An IMF source informed that “significant progress” has been achieved in the discussions, which they indicated are still in progress. Javier Milei’s administration secured a US$20 billion loan with the Fund last April, adding to an existing US$45 billion debt incurred with the lender in 2018 under Mauricio Macri’s government. The mission was dispatched to assess the nation’s economic conditions, as Argentina must successfully complete the second review of the agreement to secure an imminent US$1.1 billion disbursement. One of the critical components of the assessment, aligned with the objectives set for the conclusion of 2025, is Argentina’s accumulation of international reserves. Private consultants estimate that net international reserves, as measured by the methodology outlined in the program with the Fund, were approximately US$13 billion short of the committed level. However, considering the Argentine government’s alignment with the United States — the Fund’s primary stakeholder — analysts concur that the lender is likely to provide Argentina with a waiver.