Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced that 2025 closed with a primary fiscal surplus of AR$11.7 trillion, equivalent to 1.4% of GDP, while the overall financial balance showed a surplus of AR$1.45 trillion, or 0.2% of GDP. Caputo noted that this represents “the first time since 2008 that two consecutive years of cash-based financial surplus have been achieved. The year 2025 concluded with a primary surplus of 11.76 trillion pesos and a financial surplus of 1.45 trillion pesos, which corresponds to roughly 1.4% and 0.2% of GDP, respectively,” Caputo stated. He observed that in December, the national public sector recorded a primary deficit of AR$2.87 trillion and a financial deficit of AR$3.29 trillion, “in line with the seasonality of primary spending during the month.”
Notwithstanding, he remarked, “this is the first instance of achieving two consecutive years of cash-based financial surplus since 2008, and the inaugural occurrence in the historical series commencing in 1993 to attain this outcome while fully satisfying all public debt service obligations of the National Public Sector.” The IMF staff report published last July indicated that, after the initial program review, Argentina’s nominal target was established at AR$10.4 trillion. The data indicates that the nation exceeded that figure by more than AR$1.3 trillion pesos. The IMF will take this figure into account during its upcoming review, which is set for February. The indicative target in terms of GDP was established at 1.6%. From that perspective, the outcome was lacking by 0.2 percentage points. Notwithstanding this discrepancy, it is anticipated that the Fund will conclude that the target has been achieved.
Indeed, it is reported that officials from the Finance Ministry have been operating with an internal target of 1.3% of GDP, which corresponds to a nominal target of 10.4 trillion pesos in relation to the current GDP. In light of a 31.5% inflation rate, nominal GDP is expected to exceed midyear projections. There has been an uptick in social spending. Caputo observed that “primary spending in 2025 was 27% lower than in 2023 in real terms,” yet emphasized that this had been achieved “while protecting spending on social programs without intermediaries aimed at the most vulnerable sectors.” He detailed that “social spending on the Universal Child Allowance and the Food Card rose 43% in real terms when comparing December 2025 with December 2023, covering 92% of the basic food basket, compared with 55% in December 2023.” In this context, the economy minister stated that “the fiscal surplus was achieved after a tax reduction that has already exceeded 2.5% of GDP since 2024, including the elimination of the PAIS tax, the reduction or elimination of export and import duties on numerous tariff lines, cuts to internal taxes, and the elimination of the real estate transfer tax.” He also observed that “in December 2025 there was a further reduction in export duties — two percentage points for the soy, wheat, and barley complexes, and one percentage point for corn, sorghum, and sunflower.”
The economy minister asserted that “the fiscal anchor has been a fundamental pillar of the economic program since the first month in office, and is enshrined in the 2026 Budget.” Order in public accounts and economic growth will enable the government to persist in reallocating resources to the private sector via tax reductions, which since 2024 have already surpassed 2.5% of GDP. The Argentine Institute for Fiscal Analysis (IARAF, by its Spanish acronym) reported that “compared with 2024, the primary surplus fell by 0.43 percentage points of GDP and the overall fiscal surplus declined by 0.13 percentage points of GDP.” In 2024, these figures were recorded at 1.8% of GDP and 0.3% of GDP, respectively. The report clarified that “interest payments recorded above the line — excluding capitalized interest recorded below the line — amounted to 1.2% of GDP. Compared with 2024, the revenue dynamics influenced by tax cuts and the real increase in spending on pensions and benefits led to a relative deterioration,” IARAF stated.