Argentina’s economy is presently characterised by duality. While exports associated with oil, agriculture, and mining are achieving unprecedented levels, real economy sectors such as industry, construction, and commerce are either stagnant or experiencing a downturn. For the government, the solution to this problem is to invest in export sectors, which is expected to initiate a “trickle-down” effect on the less favoured ones. Nearly three years into the libertarian administration, it is pertinent to evaluate the effectiveness of that strategy to date. In a recent report, the orthodox think tank Fundación Mediterránea examines this issue closely, focusing on the cases of Neuquén – recognised for the Vaca Muerta oil and gas field -, San Juan, Salta, Jujuy, Catamarca, and Santa Cruz – regions engaged in metal mining – as well as Córdoba and Buenos Aires province, which are home to the majority of agricultural production. The findings reveal a diverse landscape. Despite notable advancements in certain provinces, the most densely populated areas, characterised by higher economic diversification – such as Córdoba and Buenos Aires province – are not experiencing the anticipated economic benefits stemming from the export boom.
There are instances where the government’s strategy can stimulate growth in one region, exemplified by Neuquén, while simultaneously disadvantaging other areas of the country, such as Santa Cruz. “The issue takes on special importance in a context in which the Argentine economy, in the aggregate, has shown signs of stagnation for a year and a half,” the report said. According to the report, the most significant spillover from the export boom is occurring in Neuquén. “It is not just that the total wage bill is improving. Strikingly, the rest of tradable goods – meaning everything that is not oil and gas – is growing even more than the oil sector itself, and the rest of the sectors in the Neuquén economy are also following suit with a significant improvement.” According to the survey, the wage bill for the remainder of the tradable goods in 2025 increased by 29% relative to 2023. In comparison, the growth of the oil sector was 13% during that same period, whereas the total private sector wage bill, encompassing commerce, services, and construction, experienced an increase of 17%. “It is a good example of how a strong export impulse can drive the entire provincial productive structure, beyond the sector that originates it,” the report said.
In the instances of San Juan and Catamarca, two provinces engaged in mining, the findings “confirm the trickle-down logic, albeit with nuances,” as the overall wage bill experienced an increase in both regions. “The surprising revelation in San Juan is that other tradable goods are growing more than mining itself, which is explained by the weight of the industry supplying inputs for that activity,” the report said. While the mining wage bill experienced a growth of 7%, the remainder of the tradable goods sector observed an increase of 11%. In Catamarca, the rise was predominantly driven by salaries in the mining sector. Between 2023 and 2025, they experienced a 19% increase, whereas the remainder of the tradable goods saw a rise of 6%. The private sector wage bill experienced a modest increase in both provinces, with San Juan seeing a rise of 3% and Catamarca 5%. This indicates a trickle-down effect that remains confined to sectors not directly associated with mining.
In the provinces of Buenos Aires and Córdoba, which have significant agricultural connections, exports are performing adequately; however, they contribute minimally to the broader economic landscape. “The agricultural sector exports more and pays better, but its strong performance is not enough to drive the provincial economy as a whole,” the report said. Total wages in the agricultural sector increased by 7% in Buenos Aires province and by 5% in Córdoba, when adjusted for inflation. The remaining segments of the tradable goods sector experienced contractions of 4% and 5%, respectively. There are also provinces characterised by a mixed reality, as exemplified by Santa Cruz. The report indicates that, while mining is “going through a good moment,” the oil sector is “retreating sharply” as a result of the state-run oil company YPF closing mature wells to focus investment on more productive areas, such as Vaca Muerta. That “ends up dragging down the rest of the tradable goods, other sectors, and the total wage bill.” While the mining wage bill increased by 21% from 2023 to 2025, the private sector wage bill experienced a decline of 15%.
