Argentina’s lithium sector has established a new ten-year roadmap. Public and private estimates indicate that over the next decade, the country’s “atomic number 3” industry is projected to triple in size, exceeding a total installed production capacity of 650,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. If just over half of that total were processed and exported, Argentina would ascend to the ranks of the world’s top three lithium producers, directly competing with Australia in first place, Chile in second, and China in third. However, if the eight planned processing plants become operational within the next decade, in conjunction with the seven already functioning, the country may emerge as the world’s largest producer of lithium, pivotal for the global energy transition. Information originating from the United States. Global demand for lithium carbonate equivalent in 2023 reached 920,000 tonnes, with 84% allocated to the battery industry. Demand increased to 1.27 million tonnes in 2024, and is projected to attain 1.34 million tonnes this year. Projections from S&P and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence indicate that by 2035, global demand for lithium may reach between 3.3 and 3.8 million tonnes of LCE — a figure that would be three times the level anticipated for 2024, signifying an increase exceeding 230%. That is exactly where Argentina’s opportunity resides. The USGS reported that the measured and indicated lithium resources globally amount to 115 million tonnes. Argentina occupies the top position in this global ranking, producing just over 23 million tonnes, followed closely by Bolivia at 23 million, Chile at 11 million, Australia at 8.9 million, and China at 6.8 million. It is evident that the nation possesses considerable potential for expansion.
This potential exponential leap was emphasized by Luis Lucero, Argentina’s National Secretary of Mining, at the opening ceremony of the recent Lithium in South America Seminar, organized by Panorama Minero in Catamarca. In a presentation to an audience comprising governors, business leaders, experts, and suppliers, Lucero showcased a bar chart that generated considerable enthusiasm among the over 1,000 attendees. “The growth achieved over the past ten years has been exceptional,” Lucero stated, highlighting that Argentina’s installed production capacity has increased from 35,500 tonnes of LCE per year to 186,000 tonnes annually. “Argentina is today an international player of the highest relevance in the global lithium market, and we can only hope and work for its importance to keep growing,” he concluded. Currently, Australia stands as the foremost producer, contributing 37% to the overall production figures. Chile is next in line, accounting for 23%. This year, Chile anticipates achieving a cumulative lithium output of 305,000 tonnes of LCE, as per projections from Cochilco, the Chilean state mining agency — marking a notable increase from the 285,000 tonnes documented in 2024. Argentina, boasting seven operational plants, is projected to conclude 2025 with unprecedented figures. A private report, which Energy Report has reviewed, indicated that in the first half of 2025, production reached 51,400 tonnes of LCE, representing 57% utilization of installed capacity. In the latter half of the year, the report anticipates that ramp-up processes at the newest facilities — Tres Quebradas, Mariana, Sal de Oro, and Centenario Ratones — will persist, resulting in a 27% increase in production performance and culminating in approximately 115,000 tonnes of LCE produced by year-end. The most optimistic voices at the seminar project a target of 140,000 tonnes. Time will reveal the outcome.
In the initial eight months of 2025 (up to August), lithium exports reached US$494 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% in value and 56% in volume. This figure accounts for 14% of total mining exports, positioning lithium as the country’s second most-exported mineral. However, the critical inquiry persists: what level of investment is required for Argentina to ascend to the ranks of the world’s leading lithium producers? In the last decade, lithium mining firms have allocated US$7.6 billion to enhance production capacity, which currently stands at 183,700 tonnes of LCE. Private-sector estimates indicate that the initiation of 17 out of the 30 registered new projects would necessitate an extra US$12.8 billion in investment, which would be sufficient to elevate Argentina’s productive capacity to 580,000 tonnes of LCE. In Catamarca, Lucero discussed the goal of achieving 15 operational plants by 2035, with an estimated capacity of approximately 658,000 tonnes of LCE. The challenge is substantial, and considerable effort remains to be undertaken. The initial challenges to address include global competition and subdued pricing levels. Currently, China exerts control over global lithium acquisitions and, as a result, determines the market price. Electrification is progressing swiftly, yet it experiences phases of deceleration. Lithium does not conform to the characteristics of a traditional commodity, with its price exhibiting fluctuations in response to market dynamics. The gauge of international value is significantly influenced by China’s output and consumption of electric vehicles and various electric products, alongside global supply dynamics. International prices are determined via purchase agreements between producers and buyers, although these agreements are frequently maintained under commercial confidentiality. On average, a tonne of lithium is currently priced at approximately US$10,000, with delivery contracts that can extend for as long as two years. Some transactions, however, are executed for just above US$8,000 per tonne.
In late 2023, global shipments were contracted for up to 83,000 dollars per tonne. In Argentina, prices have consistently remained below US$55,000 per tonne, accompanied by a federal export tax of 4% that currently remains unchanged. The matter received minimal attention in the northern provinces of the country, as there was a prevailing reluctance to provoke any tension. Mining companies contend that the elimination of export taxes would represent a favorable move for a sector aiming to grow and enhance production, particularly as global conditions become increasingly difficult. During the Catamarca event, numerous foreign analysts cautioned that the global lithium market is presently characterized by a combination of constrained yet increasing demand alongside a plentiful supply. Federico Gay observed that in 2025, lithium demand is projected to increase by 24% relative to the previous year, with 65% of this demand attributed to electric vehicles. He noted that lithium’s annual growth projection of 15% stands unparalleled by any other mineral. Gay also highlighted that this year an additional 100,000 tonnes of lithium will enter the market from Africa, with global production increasing by 200,000 tonnes relative to the previous year. This will result in an oversupply situation. Initially, this will offset the elevated prices that ensued from the temporary halt of the Lianxiawo mine in China, managed by battery leader. However, prices have subsequently declined once more following the revelation of what is purported to be the largest lithium reserve globally, exceeding even that of Argentina, in addition to other recent findings. In late September, Neptune Energy disclosed the discovery of 43 million tonnes of lithium in Germany’s Altmark region, located in Saxony-Anhalt. Evaluations by the firm Sproule ERCE indicate that this represents one of the largest reserves globally and has the potential to reshape lithium supply dynamics in Europe — a market that has thus far attracted the “lithium triangle” countries of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile.
Preliminary assessments by the company indicate that the Altmark region may contain as much as 70 million tonnes of lithium carbonate, which would allow for an annual extraction of 25,000 tonnes — adequate to produce batteries for approximately half a million electric vehicles each year. The global landscape continues to evolve, with ongoing research and exploration, while the external threat remains considerable. The sentiment expressed in Catamarca was indicative of broader trends. In this context, Argentina confronts two supplementary challenges that augment the battle against international competition. The federal government, alongside the nine mining provinces, must achieve a conclusive resolution regarding the Glacier Law and the Wetlands Law, whether through the Supreme Court or Congress. Secondly, there is an urgent requirement for a thorough enhancement of the nation’s energy infrastructure alongside its road and rail logistics systems to facilitate an increase in exports. Should these two challenges be addressed by 2035, Argentina has the potential to elevate mining to its third-largest export sector, closely aligning it with agriculture and hydrocarbons. The figure of US$30 billion annually is being proposed. Mining is often referred to as the third engine of the airplane that will ultimately enable Argentina to take off. The fourth is the knowledge economy; however, that is a topic for another discussion. Regulating Argentina’s Glacier Law is vital for the progression of significant copper projects, while elucidating the parameters of the Wetlands Law is also critical for activities in the salt flats of the Puna, where the majority of the nation’s lithium resources are located. The Supreme Court has called upon national and provincial representatives to negotiate agreements regarding the management of periglacial zones and the implementation of the National Glacier Inventory. The mining sector does not dismiss this instrument; rather, it holds it in high regard. Firms require assurance that the Glacier Law, along with its associated regulations, will facilitate mining operations in the Andes. Investors exhibit reluctance to allocate the substantial sums of money that the RIGI large investment regime aims to draw in the absence of this legal safeguard. Delegates at the Catamarca event expressed concerns that a provincial judge might impede any project through a straightforward ruling, particularly those related to copper ventures necessitating investments between US$2.7 billion and US$15 billion.
A comparable disruption may arise concerning the Wetlands Law and lithium initiatives. The Wetlands Law aims to set baseline criteria for the preservation of ecosystems, encompassing salt flats. The matter has been a subject of discussion in Congress for ten years, with the Senate having passed it on two occasions. However, it has not yet been enacted into law. Firms perceive it as a possible challenge to the advancement of mining activities. The national government plans to modify the Glacier Law through a decree aimed at enhancing economic activity in periglacial regions, subsequently leading provincial legislatures to adopt the decree as their own. The Ministry of Deregulation is responsible for formulating this decree, which will subsequently require validation from the Economy Ministry. Nevertheless, the mining sector would advocate for the protection of projects through a national law enacted by Congress, thereby eliminating any potential for ambiguity. This necessitates post-election political collaboration among various parties and mining regions, as governors and legislators from the ruling party must establish a robust majority focused on enhancing production, employment, and foreign currency generation. In an effort to persuade doubtful or ill-informed legislators, corporations and labor unions are prepared to enlist the support of experts, scientists, researchers, and workers at committee meetings. Their aim is to provide accurate information, rectify misunderstandings, and counteract prevalent myths surrounding the mining industry. A third avenue for the Glacier Law could involve intervention by the Supreme Court, which would convene all stakeholders, promote consensus among the nation, provinces, and affected parties, and deliver a unanimous ruling — thereby shielding projects from subsequent legal disputes. However, at this moment, there is no expectation that the justices will take on such a pivotal role or engage in the discussion.
Argentina’s lithium sector faces a significant challenge in the expansion of energy infrastructure and the development of a new export logistics network. A high-voltage transmission line in the Puna, which provides clean, renewable energy to processing plants, camps, and local communities, is deemed essential. Subsequently, advancements will be essential regarding intermediate transformer stations and linkages to lithium initiatives. One of the two industry proposals has already secured approval from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a component of the World Bank Group, which advocates for economic development in emerging nations via private-sector expansion. Anticipation surrounds forthcoming announcements from the IFC. A comprehensive report was recently presented to address logistics, providing precise guidelines to propel Argentine mining. The document, titled “Mining Logistics Plan,” constitutes a component of the Federal Logistics Strategy, crafted by Argentine experts recognized on the international stage. The report is currently under wraps, but it is set to be prominently disclosed at PDAC 2026 in Toronto, Canada. During the seminar, it was observed that should mining be synchronized with the privatization of the Belgrano Cargas railway, the existing freight capacity of three million tonnes could potentially be increased twofold. This would decrease operating expenses, enhance export activity, and mitigate environmental consequences, among other advantages. Before the conclusion of the year, bidding will commence on a branch-by-branch basis. The state-owned enterprise, which is poised to cease operations following the privatization of the railway, has called upon mining companies to engage as part of an investment consortium to oversee essential segments. The preliminary agreement aimed at enhancing Belgrano grain exports with agribusiness entities such as Bunge, Cargill, ACA, AGD, and Louis Dreyfus is referenced as a benchmark. Will mining companies contemplate participation? Award decisions are scheduled for March 2026, and the timeframe is constrained.
The lithium sector is confronted with a challenge regarding production efficiency. The process of extracting lithium from impure brine entails solar evaporation to concentrate the lithium content, succeeded by purification, filtration, and washing procedures. Certain projects require four tonnes of chemical inputs to yield one tonne of lithium carbonate or hydroxide. Some processes necessitate as much as seven tonnes of chemicals for every tonne produced, thereby increasing logistical expenses. Subsequently, one must consider exploration, drilling, and meticulous field planning. Experts at the seminar emphasized that the most effective scenario involves securing the highest quality well for the longest duration, ensuring optimal chemistry and hydraulics — a balance of technology and water management. A considerable amount of discourse surrounds water and lithium; however, there exists a notable lack of understanding regarding the rigorous efforts required in geophysical and scientific investigations aimed at optimizing the utilization of freshwater for industrial purposes and brine for production. It is important to highlight that brine utilized in lithium extraction is not appropriate for human, animal, or agricultural applications and is subsequently reinjected into the original reservoirs following processing. The water footprint associated with beef production is quantified at 16 cubic meters for each kilogram produced. The data indicates that the volume is 2.5 cubic meters for each kilogram of soy, whereas it is only 0.6 cubic meters for each kilogram of lithium, as presented at the Catamarca seminar. Beyond the extensively analyzed Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) methods employed in various Argentine initiatives, the fundamental efficiency challenge is identified as the “production cap.” This term denotes the tonnage limitations inherent to processing facilities, which can only be alleviated through further investment and construction, as the resource is confined to the same well. Consequently, Argentina’s lithium potential is contingent upon forthcoming expansions, specifically the 17 planned new plants.
Analysts should take this into account, as there is a risk of misclassifying projects as operational when the objective is to enhance existing capacity. That is exactly what firms are striving to achieve. Private data suggest that Argentina is embarking on a new expansion phase within its lithium industry, characterized by more than 30 registered projects and a development timeline extending to 2033. “Lithium is the next Vaca Muerta — we must be patient,” stated the CEO of the nation’s foremost lithium mining company. Between 2026 and 2027, the emphasis will be on initiating and broadening essential operations. In Salta, Sal de Oro (Phase 2) is poised to become a near-term milestone, while in Catamarca, Sal de Vida (Phase 1), Fénix (Phase 1B), and HMW (Phase 1) are set to progress — three strategic initiatives that bolster the province’s significance within the lithium triangle. Between 2028 and 2029, there will be an acceleration in development marked by the initiation of Portezuelo Pastos Grandes–PPG (Phase 1), followed by subsequent Phases 2 and 3 of the project, also located in Salta. Simultaneously, Catamarca will incorporate HMW Phase 2, sustaining a growth trajectory aimed at achieving globally competitive production. A new wave of large-scale developments is anticipated between 2030 and 2033. The projects encompass Kachi, HMW (Phase 3), Candelas, Fénix (Phase 2), Sal de Vida (Phase 2), and HM South, all situated in Catamarca.
The culmination of these projects, in conjunction with new expansions, signifies the maturation of a decade-long investment trajectory that has the potential to elevate Argentina’s installed capacity to unprecedented levels. Furthermore, approximately twenty initiatives are currently suspended, pending investment decisions or the acquisition of environmental permits. In Jujuy, the notable projects encompass Cauchari, Cauchari Olaroz (Phase 2), Guayatayoc, and Salinas Grandes. In Salta, the projects currently undergoing review encompass Doncellas, Río Grande, Puna Mining, Arizaro, Rincón Oeste, and Centenario Ratones (Phase 2). In Catamarca, there are several pending projects, including Incahuasi, Salar de Antofalla, and Hombre Muerto, among others. In the current investment climate, Argentina seeks to establish itself as a prominent global supplier of lithium, thereby facilitating the worldwide energy transition. The forthcoming years will ascertain which projects progress to production and which linger in exploration, in the context of escalating international competition and persistent demand for critical minerals. Argentina has recently unveiled its new 10-year lithium plan.