The surge in oil prices resulting from the U.S. and Israel’s military actions against Iran may exacerbate inflationary pressures in Argentina while concurrently benefiting the nation’s foreign accounts, analysts suggest. This week, Brent crude’s price exceeded US$100 a barrel for the first time in nearly two years; however, on Monday, it declined to approximately US$80 following U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration that the “war is very complete, pretty much.” Pablo Repetto stated that the shock “in the medium and long term is positive for Argentina” as the country now has the opportunity to export from a less conflictive geopolitical position, “with a good natural resource to be a reliable supplier to the world.”
However, he added that the price increase has “less positive short-term consequences, such as the impact on inflation and economic activity.” The price of gas is increasing. Gas prices in Argentina have experienced a 6% increase since the onset of the hostilities. Horacio Marín which is Argentina’s primary gas producer, stated that the firm would “not cause fuel price shocks.” Marín stated in a post on X “We are implementing a micropricing strategy to assess prices on a daily and weekly basis, and through the moving average system, we will be able to mitigate peaks and troughs, providing consumers with greater predictability and a more stable price.”
A representative from YPF indicated that the company determines fuel prices by considering the weekly average price of crude oil, along with various other factors. “The barrel was at US$114 this morning, and now, it’s US$89 — consider the implications had we adjusted prices in line with this fluctuation!” The representative informed that those impacts did not have an immediate effect on gas station prices. “To prevent the pump price from constantly changing, as is the case in other countries, what we do is wait.” That does not imply that prices are static; rather, the complete increase is not being reflected at the pump instantaneously. “During the week, prices will be adjusted to reach a new parity,” he stated, indicating that this approach mitigates peaks.
A report by consulting firm 1816 indicated that, despite the relatively adverse financial effects of international volatility, the new energy prices are poised to exert a substantial positive influence on Argentina’s external accounts. “A month ago, with oil at US$60 per barrel, the government estimated an energy trade surplus of US$10 billion in 2026 and US$15 billion in 2027,” the report stated. “Those figures may now be outdated given current prices — and if energy prices ultimately stabilize at 20% above current levels, those figures could reach 12 billion US dollars and 18 billion US dollars, respectively.”