Argentines perceive Javier Milei less favourably than his leading political competitors, with increasing unemployment emerging as their primary concern as the nation approaches the presidential election in a year. According to a survey, 62 percent of Argentines hold a negative view of Milei, while 36 percent view him positively. He had received negative marks from 59 percent in the previous survey, while 38 percent viewed him positively. Ratings for his primary political opponents, on the other hand, saw an uptick, although they continue to be largely viewed unfavourably.
Buenos Aires Province Governor Axl Kicillof, regarded as a potential presidential contender, received favourable evaluations from 39 percent of respondents, reflecting a two-point increase, while his unfavourable rating held steady at 54 percent. Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, currently under house arrest and prohibited from holding political office, maintained the highest positive image at 41 percent, as indicated by the survey. Argentines identify unemployment as their primary concern, with half of the population categorising it as one of the nation’s foremost issues, surpassing both corruption and inflation. That serves as a caution for Milei, who has centred his narrative on the notion that progress will alleviate inflation, a concern identified by approximately one-third of the electorate as paramount.
The formal private sector has experienced job losses almost every month since Milei assumed office in December 2023, with approximately 70 percent of respondents characterising the country’s labour market as unfavourable. Investors have preemptively reacted to the election by selling off Argentina’s sovereign bonds, which have been among the poorest performers in emerging markets in the last three months. Yields on Argentina’s bonds maturing in 2035, among its most liquid, have increased to over 13 percent in November, up from below 9 percent in July.
Wall Street is increasingly concerned that Milei encounters a challenging road to reelection, characterised by sluggish growth and a standstill in legislative advancements within Congress. The Democrats’ significant triumph in the US midterm elections has intensified beliefs that President Donald Trump may refrain from offering financial assistance prior to the election, akin to his actions before Argentina’s midterm vote in 2025. Milei’s odds of victory have decreased in prediction markets, dropping to 43 percent in November from 56 percent the previous month on Polymarket.
