Despite a year characterised by geopolitical uncertainty arising from the conflict in the Middle East and the trade tensions between China and the U.S., recent data indicate that global trade has persisted in its growth trajectory. Global trade volumes expanded by more than 5% in the first half of 2026, as reported by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, the United Nations entity responsible for fostering economic development in the region. The figure is particularly significant because it more than doubles the 1.9% growth the World Trade Organization had forecast for the entire year. “This expansion, largely driven by the strong demand for electronic components associated with the AI-related investment boom, was led by China and other developing economies in Asia,” the report noted. Latin America emerged as one of the regions that reaped significant advantages from the expansion in global trade. According to ECLAC, goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a 20% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2026, whereas imports saw a rise of 14%. “The strong export performance of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026 is largely attributable to the sharp increase in commodity prices,” analysts at the international organization said in their International Trade Outlook, released this week. Between January and August, the region’s aggregate export price index experienced a rise of 23.5% in comparison to the same timeframe the previous year and is anticipated to increase by 20.4% for the entire year.
Minerals and metals serve as the primary catalysts, with forecasts indicating a price increase of 31.6%, predominantly driven by substantial gains in copper, gold, silver, and tin. The outlook for the second half of the year appears favourable. Total goods exports are anticipated to increase by 20% in value, driven by an 11% rise in prices and a 9% growth in volumes. “This would mark a sixth consecutive year of growth in the region’s export volumes,” the report noted. The geographical distribution of the region’s exports is also “shifting significantly” toward Asia. Exports to Asia, excluding China, are anticipated to exhibit the most robust growth in 2026, with a projected increase of 32% in value terms. Shipments to the United States are projected to increase by 24%, with the European Union following at 20% and China at 19%. In contrast, intraregional exports are projected to experience a modest growth of only 8%. In light of this advantageous context, the Herald enquired of ECLAC Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar regarding the possibility that the region might be approaching a new commodity boom akin to that witnessed from 2003 to 2014.
While recognising that present conditions “open a favourable window of opportunity” due to increasing demand and prices, Salazar emphasised that the situation is “very different” from the factors that drove the commodity boom at the start of the century. In Latin America, that period resulted in enhanced terms of trade, increased foreign-currency revenues, and a phase of economic growth. However, it also intensified the region’s reliance on natural resource exports. According to Salazar, the primary “engine” of that earlier boom was China’s “massive industrial demand.” The Asian economy experienced an annual growth rate of 9% to 10% for over a decade, significantly influencing global demand for commodities. The current landscape is different. While China remains an important source of demand, the trend is now being driven by the “technological revolution, the need for energy security strategies and the green transition,” he explained.
That shift introduces an element of “technological uncertainty,” according to Salazar. He cited lithium as an example: international demand for the mineral could decline if researchers develop a battery technology that does not rely on it. “As we know, research and development in developed countries and China is enormous,” he noted. Salazar also emphasised the increasing demand for rare earth elements, which are located in various countries throughout the region, while cautioning that leveraging these resources entails considerable challenges. “Even the extraction and refining of rare earths is much more complicated than extracting copper or other minerals,” he emphasized. Ultimately, he contended, Latin America confronts a challenge that transcends the mere provision of raw materials to global markets. “There is something much more sophisticated that we need to understand: what can be done with the region’s talent to add value in this new ‘supercycle,’ which is more closely linked to technology,” he said.
